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Championship

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Derby

S S U U T

0–3

Full-time

Hull

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

This season — Championship · 44/43 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

39%

35%

Both score Ø 44%

48%

40%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

58% Possession 42%

8 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Hull 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	46	26	15	5	+37	93
2	Middlesbrough	46	26	11	9	+32	89
3	Brighton	45	24	15	6	+28	87
4	Hull	43	24	10	9	+40	82
5	Sheffield Weds	44	20	14	10	+23	74
6	Derby	44	19	15	10	+17	72
7	Ipswich	46	18	15	13	+2	69
8	Cardiff	46	17	17	12	+5	68
9	Brentford	46	19	8	19	+5	65
10	Birmingham	46	16	15	15	+4	63
11	Preston	46	15	17	14	+0	62
12	QPR	46	14	18	14	+0	60
13	Leeds	46	14	17	15	-8	59
14	Wolves	46	14	16	16	-5	58
15	Blackburn	46	13	16	17	+0	55
16	Nott'm Forest	46	13	16	17	-4	55
17	Reading	46	13	13	20	-7	52
18	Bristol City	46	13	13	20	-17	52
19	Huddersfield	46	13	12	21	-11	51
20	Fulham	46	12	15	19	-13	51
21	Rotherham	46	13	10	23	-18	49
22	Charlton	46	9	13	24	-40	40
23	Milton Keynes Dons	46	9	12	25	-30	39
24	Bolton	46	5	15	26	-40	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	23	16	5	2	+26	53
2	Hull	21	15	6	0	+37	51
3	Burnley	23	15	6	2	+24	51
4	Sheffield Weds	23	14	7	2	+27	49
5	Brighton	22	15	4	3	+22	49
6	Cardiff	23	12	9	2	+13	45
7	Derby	22	11	7	4	+17	40
8	QPR	23	10	9	4	+12	39
9	Ipswich	23	9	8	6	+4	35
10	Brentford	23	10	4	9	+3	34
11	Reading	23	8	9	6	+5	33
12	Blackburn	23	8	8	7	+6	32
13	Birmingham	23	9	5	9	+0	32
14	Wolves	23	7	10	6	+0	31
15	Preston	23	7	10	6	+0	31
16	Rotherham	23	8	6	9	-3	30
17	Fulham	23	8	5	10	+0	29
18	Nott'm Forest	23	7	8	8	-1	29
19	Leeds	23	7	8	8	-5	29
20	Bristol City	23	7	7	9	+0	28
21	Huddersfield	23	7	6	10	+0	27
22	Bolton	23	5	11	7	-2	26
23	Milton Keynes Dons	23	7	3	13	-16	24
24	Charlton	23	5	8	10	-12	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	23	11	9	3	+13	42
2	Brighton	23	9	11	3	+6	38
3	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+6	36
4	Ipswich	23	9	7	7	-2	34
5	Derby	22	8	8	6	+0	32
6	Birmingham	23	7	10	6	+4	31
7	Hull	22	9	4	9	+3	31
8	Brentford	23	9	4	10	+2	31
9	Preston	23	8	7	8	+0	31
10	Leeds	23	7	9	7	-3	30
11	Wolves	23	7	6	10	-5	27
12	Nott'm Forest	23	6	8	9	-3	26
13	Sheffield Weds	21	6	7	8	-4	25
14	Huddersfield	23	6	6	11	-11	24
15	Bristol City	23	6	6	11	-17	24
16	Blackburn	23	5	8	10	-6	23
17	Cardiff	23	5	8	10	-8	23
18	Fulham	23	4	10	9	-13	22
19	QPR	23	4	9	10	-12	21
20	Reading	23	5	4	14	-12	19
21	Rotherham	23	5	4	14	-15	19
22	Charlton	23	4	5	14	-28	17
23	Milton Keynes Dons	23	2	9	12	-14	15
24	Bolton	23	0	4	19	-38	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.