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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Derby

U T S S T

5–0

Full-time

Hull

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Hull

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

4,5

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

2,4

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,4

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

41% Possession 59%

15 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 9

16 Free kicks against 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 12. · Hull 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+3	12
3	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Nott'm Forest	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Preston	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Hull	5	2	1	2	+5	7
9	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	QPR	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Reading	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Derby	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Bristol City	5	1	3	1	+1	6
14	Fulham	5	1	3	1	+1	6
15	Barnsley	5	2	0	3	+0	6
16	Sheffield Weds	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Millwall	5	1	2	2	+2	5
18	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	5
19	Sunderland	5	1	2	2	-3	5
20	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	Burton Albion	5	1	1	3	-5	4
22	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-6	4
23	Brentford	5	0	2	3	-4	2
24	Bolton	5	0	2	3	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Sheffield United	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Hull	3	2	0	1	+6	6
5	Barnsley	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Nott'm Forest	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+3	4
12	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Burton Albion	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Bolton	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Wolves	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Fulham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Preston	3	0	2	1	-1	2
12	Bolton	3	0	2	1	-4	2
13	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	QPR	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Norwich	3	0	1	2	-6	1
19	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Birmingham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.