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Championship
Referee: Simon Hooper
West Brom
T U S S T
2–1
Full-time
Stoke
T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom Stoke
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,3
This season — Championship · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 70%
80%
60%
Average goals
4,2
3,0
Scored
2,6
1,2
Conceded
1,6
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 6
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 7
3 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Brom 11. · Stoke 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Middlesbrough 6 4 2 0 +7 14
2 Leeds 5 3 2 0 +7 11
3 Bolton 5 3 1 1 +0 10
4 Derby 4 3 0 1 +4 9
5 Aston Villa 5 2 3 0 +3 9
6 Blackburn 5 2 3 0 +2 9
7 Sheffield United 5 3 0 2 +1 9
8 Brentford 5 2 2 1 +5 8
9 Bristol City 5 2 2 1 +2 8
10 Swansea 5 2 2 1 +1 8
11 West Brom 5 2 1 2 +5 7
12 Wigan 5 2 1 2 +2 7
13 Nott'm Forest 5 1 4 0 +1 7
14 Sheffield Weds 5 2 1 2 -1 7
15 Rotherham 5 2 0 3 -5 6
16 Millwall 5 1 2 2 -1 5
17 Stoke 5 1 2 2 -3 5
18 Norwich 5 1 1 3 -3 4
19 Hull 5 1 1 3 -4 4
20 Preston 5 1 1 3 -4 4
21 Birmingham 5 0 3 2 -2 3
22 QPR 5 1 0 4 -10 3
23 Reading 5 0 2 3 -3 2
24 Ipswich 5 0 2 3 -4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Brom Stoke
1–0 D. Gayle
K. Gibbs
16′
19′
🟨 Erik Pieters
Kyle Bartley 🟨
45′
Half-time 1–0
Matt Phillips 🟨
53′
54′
🔁 R. Woods
↦ S. Berahino
2–0 D. Gayle
J. Livermore
59′
64′
🔁 B. Afobe
↦ M. Diouf
Jake Livermore 🟨
71′
H. Robson-Kanu 🔁
↦ D. Gayle
72′
81′
🔁 Bojan
↦ O. Etebo
G. Barry 🔁
↦ H. Barnes
87′
95′
E. Pieters 2–1
J. McClean
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

West Brom

3-4-1-2
1 S. Johnstone G
3 K. Gibbs D
25 C. Dawson D
26 Ahmed Hegazi D
5 K. Bartley D
11 C. Brunt M
10 M. Phillips M
8 J. Livermore M
15 H. Barnes F
19 J. Rodriguez F
16 D. Gayle F
Bench (7)
4 H. Robson-Kanu
18 G. Barry
13 G. Myhill
17 O. Burke
20 J. Leko
24 T. Adarabioyo
28 S. Field

Coach: D. Moore

Stoke

4-4-1-1
1 J. Butland G
3 E. Pieters D
17 R. Shawcross D
23 R. Martina D
15 B. Martins Indi D
4 J. Allen M
11 J. McClean M
8 O. Etebo M
25 P. Crouch F
18 M. Diouf F
19 S. Berahino F
Bench (7)
38 R. Woods
9 B. Afobe
27 Bojan
5 A. Williams
24 D. Fletcher
30 T. Edwards
32 A. Federici

Coach: G. Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Simon Hooper · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.