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Bundesliga
Referee: Guido Winkmann
Nurnberg
T
1–1
Full-time
Mainz
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nurnberg Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
1,0
2,3
Scored
0,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
1,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%
19 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nurnberg 13. · Mainz 8. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 2 1 1 0 +3 4
2 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Hertha 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Hannover 2 0 2 0 +0 2
10 Werder Bremen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
11 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 0 0 1 -1 0
12 Schalke 04 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Nurnberg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Stuttgart 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Freiburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
18 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nurnberg Mainz
25′
⚽ J. Mateta 0–1
Aarón Martín
33′
🟨 Moussa Niakhaté
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 N. Bungert
↦ M. Niakhate
1–1 M. Ishak ⚽
E. Valentini
48′
50′
🟨 Pierre Kunde
Ondřej Petrák 🟨
53′
E. Löwen 🔁
↦ F. Palacios
65′
67′
🔁 J. Boëtius
↦ A. Maxim
81′
🔁 P. Mwene
↦ K. Onisiwo
K. Goden 🔁
↦ A. Fuchs
88′
Hanno Behrens 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Nurnberg

4-3-3
1 F. Bredlow G
33 G. Margreitter D
22 E. Valentini D
23 T. Leibold D
28 L. Mühl D
18 H. Behrens M
31 O. Petrak M
35 A. Fuchs M
9 M. Ishak F
14 Y. Kubo F
21 F. Palacios F
Bench (7)
17 E. Löwen
2 K. Goden
8 R. Bauer
19 T. Knöll
26 C. Mathenia
29 P. Erras
37 T. Tillman

Coach: M. Köllner

Mainz

4-4-1-1
22 F. Müller G
18 D. Brosinski D
16 S. Bell D
3 Aarón Martín D
19 M. Niakhate D
10 A. Maxim M
14 P. Malong M
34 R. Baku M
21 K. Onisiwo F
7 R. Quaison F
9 J. Mateta F
Bench (7)
26 N. Bungert
5 J. Boëtius
23 P. Mwene
24 G. Bussmann
27 R. Zentner
29 J. Burkardt
35 L. Barreiro

Coach: S. Schwarz

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Guido Winkmann · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.