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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Man City

S S U U S

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 46%

57%

34%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

69%

63%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

49%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Leicester 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	36	28	3	5	+47	87
2	Tottenham	35	23	8	4	+48	77
3	Liverpool	36	20	10	6	+29	70
4	Man City	35	20	9	6	+33	69
5	Arsenal	35	20	6	9	+26	66
6	Man United	35	17	14	4	+24	65
7	Everton	37	17	10	10	+20	61
8	West Brom	36	12	9	15	-5	45
9	Leicester	35	12	7	16	-9	43
10	Southampton	35	11	9	15	-7	42
11	Bournemouth	36	11	9	16	-13	42
12	West Ham	36	11	9	16	-14	42
13	Stoke	36	10	11	15	-13	41
14	Burnley	36	11	7	18	-14	40
15	Watford	36	11	7	18	-22	40
16	Crystal Palace	36	11	5	20	-15	38
17	Swansea	36	10	5	21	-28	35
18	Hull	36	9	7	20	-33	34
19	Middlesbrough	36	5	13	18	-22	28
20	Sunderland	35	6	6	23	-32	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Chelsea	17	15	0	2	+33	45
3	Everton	19	13	4	2	+26	43
4	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+19	39
5	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+24	38
6	Man City	17	9	7	1	+17	34
7	Leicester	17	10	3	4	+11	33
8	Burnley	18	10	3	5	+7	33
9	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
10	West Brom	19	9	2	8	+5	29
11	Bournemouth	18	8	4	6	+5	28
12	Watford	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Hull	18	8	4	6	-1	28
14	Stoke	18	7	6	5	+3	27
15	West Ham	18	7	4	7	-8	25
16	Swansea	18	7	3	8	-8	24
17	Southampton	17	6	5	6	-3	23
18	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-5	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	2	11	-5	17
20	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	19	13	3	3	+14	42
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Man United	17	10	4	3	+12	34
4	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+5	32
5	Tottenham	17	7	6	4	+11	27
6	Arsenal	18	8	3	7	+7	27
7	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-10	21
8	Southampton	18	5	4	9	-4	19
9	Everton	18	4	6	8	-6	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	17	3	7	7	-10	16
12	Stoke	18	3	5	10	-16	14
13	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
14	Watford	18	3	3	12	-23	12
15	Swansea	18	3	2	13	-20	11
16	Sunderland	17	3	1	13	-16	10
17	Middlesbrough	18	1	7	10	-17	10
18	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-20	10
19	Burnley	18	1	4	13	-21	7
20	Hull	18	1	3	14	-32	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.