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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Liverpool

S U S S S

4–3

Full-time

Man City

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,7

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,3

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 73%

55%

91%

Points per game

2,0

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

68%

73%

Both score Ø 53%

55%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,9

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+2,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	22	20	2	0	+51	62
2	Man United	22	14	5	3	+29	47
3	Chelsea	23	14	5	4	+25	47
4	Liverpool	22	12	8	2	+25	44
5	Tottenham	23	13	5	5	+25	44
6	Arsenal	23	11	6	6	+11	39
7	Burnley	23	9	7	7	-1	34
8	Leicester	23	8	7	8	+2	31
9	Everton	23	7	6	10	-13	27
10	Watford	23	7	5	11	-9	26
11	West Ham	23	6	7	10	-12	25
12	Crystal Palace	23	6	7	10	-12	25
13	Bournemouth	23	6	6	11	-11	24
14	Huddersfield	23	6	6	11	-20	24
15	Newcastle	23	6	5	12	-10	23
16	Brighton	23	5	8	10	-12	23
17	Southampton	23	4	9	10	-11	21
18	Stoke	22	5	5	12	-24	20
19	West Brom	23	3	10	10	-12	19
20	Swansea	23	4	5	14	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	1	0	+31	31
2	Man United	11	8	2	1	+19	26
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+14	26
5	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+17	25
6	Liverpool	11	6	5	0	+17	23
7	Everton	11	6	1	4	+2	19
8	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+2	17
9	Burnley	11	5	2	4	+0	17
10	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Huddersfield	12	4	4	4	-5	16
12	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
13	Brighton	11	3	6	2	-2	15
14	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-3	14
15	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-7	14
16	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-3	13
17	West Brom	12	2	7	3	-3	13
18	Watford	12	3	4	5	-9	13
19	Newcastle	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	1	0	+20	31
2	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	21
3	Man United	11	6	3	2	+10	21
4	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+8	21
5	Tottenham	11	6	1	4	+8	19
6	Burnley	12	4	5	3	-1	17
7	Leicester	12	3	5	4	+0	14
8	Watford	11	4	1	6	+0	13
9	Arsenal	12	3	4	5	-4	13
10	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-6	11
11	West Ham	13	2	5	6	-9	11
12	Bournemouth	11	2	3	6	-9	9
13	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-9	9
14	Swansea	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Southampton	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	Everton	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Huddersfield	11	2	2	7	-15	8
19	West Brom	11	1	3	7	-9	6
20	Stoke	11	1	3	7	-17	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.