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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Man City

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 57%

87%

26%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

74%

39%

Both score Ø 46%

52%

39%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,9

0,9

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

80% Possession 20%

21 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

18 Corners 0

4 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Newcastle 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	23	20	2	1	+50	62
2	Man United	24	16	5	3	+33	53
3	Chelsea	24	15	5	4	+29	50
4	Liverpool	23	13	8	2	+26	47
5	Tottenham	23	13	5	5	+25	44
6	Arsenal	24	12	6	6	+14	42
7	Leicester	24	9	7	8	+4	34
8	Burnley	24	9	7	8	-2	34
9	Everton	24	7	7	10	-13	28
10	Watford	24	7	5	12	-11	26
11	West Ham	24	6	8	10	-12	26
12	Bournemouth	24	6	7	11	-11	25
13	Crystal Palace	24	6	7	11	-15	25
14	Huddersfield	24	6	6	12	-22	24
15	Newcastle	23	6	5	12	-10	23
16	Brighton	24	5	8	11	-16	23
17	Stoke	24	6	5	13	-25	23
18	Southampton	23	4	9	10	-11	21
19	West Brom	24	3	11	10	-12	20
20	Swansea	23	4	5	14	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	1	0	+31	31
2	Man United	12	9	2	1	+22	29
3	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+18	29
4	Liverpool	12	7	5	0	+18	26
5	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+14	26
6	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+17	25
7	Leicester	12	6	2	4	+4	20
8	Everton	12	6	2	4	+2	20
9	Burnley	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Stoke	12	5	2	5	-5	17
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Huddersfield	12	4	4	4	-5	16
13	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
14	West Ham	11	4	3	4	-3	15
15	Brighton	12	3	6	3	-6	15
16	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-3	13
17	West Brom	12	2	7	3	-3	13
18	Watford	12	3	4	5	-9	13
19	Newcastle	12	3	3	6	-4	12
20	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+19	31
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+8	21
5	Tottenham	11	6	1	4	+8	19
6	Burnley	12	4	5	3	-1	17
7	Leicester	12	3	5	4	+0	14
8	Watford	12	4	1	7	-2	13
9	Arsenal	12	3	4	5	-4	13
10	Newcastle	11	3	2	6	-6	11
11	West Ham	13	2	5	6	-9	11
12	Bournemouth	12	2	4	6	-9	10
13	Swansea	12	2	3	7	-10	9
14	Crystal Palace	12	2	3	7	-12	9
15	Southampton	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	Everton	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Huddersfield	12	2	2	8	-17	8
19	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-9	7
20	Stoke	12	1	3	8	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.