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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Chelsea

S U S T T

4–2

Full-time

Watford

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,3

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

6 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Watford 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+25	22
2	Man United	8	6	2	0	+19	20
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Watford	8	4	3	1	+0	15
5	Chelsea	8	4	1	3	+5	13
6	Arsenal	8	4	1	3	+2	13
7	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Liverpool	8	3	4	1	+1	13
9	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	West Brom	8	2	4	2	-2	10
12	Southampton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Everton	8	2	2	4	-8	8
16	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-9	8
17	West Ham	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	Leicester	8	1	3	4	-3	6
19	Bournemouth	8	1	1	6	-8	4
20	Crystal Palace	8	1	0	7	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+15	10
4	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Stoke	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Everton	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Huddersfield	4	1	2	1	-3	5
15	Watford	4	1	2	1	-5	5
16	Leicester	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-4	3
20	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Man United	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Burnley	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	-4	5
9	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	West Brom	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Leicester	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Everton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
16	West Ham	5	0	2	3	-8	2
17	Arsenal	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-7	1
19	Bournemouth	4	0	0	4	-6	0
20	Crystal Palace	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.