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Premier League

Referee: Lee Probert

Southampton

U T U S U

0–2

Full-time

Watford

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,5

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 8. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Huddersfield	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Watford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Stoke	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Bournemouth	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
4	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.