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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Watford

U S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

43%

57%

Points per game

1,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 29%

43%

14%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

11 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+25	22
2	Man United	8	6	2	0	+19	20
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Chelsea	8	4	1	3	+5	13
5	Arsenal	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Burnley	8	3	4	1	+2	13
7	Liverpool	8	3	4	1	+1	13
8	Watford	7	3	3	1	-1	12
9	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	+1	10
10	West Brom	7	2	3	2	-2	9
11	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-4	9
12	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	West Ham	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-9	8
16	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Everton	7	2	1	4	-8	7
18	Leicester	7	1	2	4	-3	5
19	Bournemouth	8	1	1	6	-8	4
20	Crystal Palace	8	1	0	7	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Man City	4	3	1	0	+15	10
4	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Stoke	4	2	1	1	-2	7
7	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Everton	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Huddersfield	4	1	2	1	-3	5
14	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Leicester	3	1	0	2	+0	3
18	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-4	3
19	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	3
20	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Watford	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Man United	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Burnley	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Liverpool	4	1	2	1	-4	5
9	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	West Brom	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Leicester	4	0	2	2	-3	2
14	West Ham	5	0	2	3	-8	2
15	Brighton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-7	1
19	Bournemouth	4	0	0	4	-6	0
20	Crystal Palace	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.