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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Chelsea

T S S S S

4–3

Full-time

Watford

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,3

0,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 55%

78%

31%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

67%

44%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

47% Possession 53%

24 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Watford 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	36	28	3	5	+47	87
2	Tottenham	36	24	8	4	+49	80
3	Liverpool	37	21	10	6	+33	73
4	Man City	36	21	9	6	+34	72
5	Arsenal	36	21	6	9	+29	69
6	Man United	36	17	14	5	+23	65
7	Everton	37	17	10	10	+20	61
8	West Brom	36	12	9	15	-5	45
9	Southampton	36	12	9	15	-6	45
10	Bournemouth	37	12	9	16	-12	45
11	Leicester	36	12	7	17	-10	43
12	West Ham	37	11	9	17	-18	42
13	Crystal Palace	37	12	5	20	-11	41
14	Stoke	37	10	11	16	-16	41
15	Burnley	37	11	7	19	-15	40
16	Watford	36	11	7	18	-22	40
17	Swansea	37	11	5	21	-26	38
18	Hull	37	9	7	21	-37	34
19	Middlesbrough	37	5	13	19	-23	28
20	Sunderland	36	6	6	24	-34	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	19	17	2	0	+38	53
2	Chelsea	17	15	0	2	+33	45
3	Everton	19	13	4	2	+26	43
4	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+19	39
5	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+24	38
6	Man City	18	10	7	1	+18	37
7	Leicester	17	10	3	4	+11	33
8	Burnley	18	10	3	5	+7	33
9	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
10	Bournemouth	19	9	4	6	+6	31
11	West Brom	19	9	2	8	+5	29
12	Watford	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Hull	18	8	4	6	-1	28
14	Stoke	19	7	6	6	+0	27
15	West Ham	19	7	4	8	-12	25
16	Swansea	18	7	3	8	-8	24
17	Southampton	17	6	5	6	-3	23
18	Crystal Palace	19	6	2	11	-1	20
19	Middlesbrough	19	4	6	9	-6	18
20	Sunderland	19	3	5	11	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	19	13	3	3	+14	42
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Liverpool	19	10	5	4	+9	35
4	Man United	18	10	4	4	+11	34
5	Arsenal	19	9	3	7	+10	30
6	Tottenham	17	7	6	4	+11	27
7	Southampton	19	6	4	9	-3	22
8	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-10	21
9	Everton	18	4	6	8	-6	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	17	3	7	7	-10	16
12	Stoke	18	3	5	10	-16	14
13	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
14	Swansea	19	4	2	13	-18	14
15	Watford	18	3	3	12	-23	12
16	Sunderland	17	3	1	13	-16	10
17	Middlesbrough	18	1	7	10	-17	10
18	Leicester	19	2	4	13	-21	10
19	Burnley	19	1	4	14	-22	7
20	Hull	19	1	3	15	-36	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.