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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Watford

T T T T S

0–0

Full-time

Chelsea

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

39%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

48%

65%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 10. · Chelsea 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	24	14	8	2	+18	50
2	Man City	24	14	5	5	+23	47
3	Tottenham	24	12	9	3	+25	45
4	Arsenal	24	13	6	5	+15	45
5	Man United	24	11	7	6	+10	40
6	West Ham	24	10	9	5	+10	39
7	Southampton	24	9	7	8	+8	34
8	Liverpool	24	9	7	8	-4	34
9	Stoke	24	9	6	9	-4	33
10	Watford	23	9	5	9	+1	32
11	Crystal Palace	24	9	4	11	-4	31
12	Everton	23	6	11	6	+6	29
13	West Brom	24	7	8	9	-8	29
14	Chelsea	23	7	7	9	-2	28
15	Bournemouth	24	7	7	10	-10	28
16	Swansea	24	6	8	10	-9	26
17	Norwich	24	6	5	13	-18	23
18	Newcastle	23	5	6	12	-16	21
19	Sunderland	24	5	4	15	-19	19
20	Aston Villa	24	2	7	15	-22	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+8	25
3	Arsenal	12	7	3	2	+9	24
4	Tottenham	12	6	4	2	+13	22
5	Man United	12	6	4	2	+10	22
6	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+9	20
7	West Ham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Stoke	11	5	2	4	+3	17
9	Watford	12	5	2	5	+2	17
10	Chelsea	12	4	4	4	+1	16
11	Liverpool	11	4	4	3	-1	16
12	West Brom	13	4	4	5	-3	16
13	Swansea	12	4	4	4	-4	16
14	Norwich	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Newcastle	12	3	5	4	+1	14
16	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-3	14
17	Everton	12	3	4	5	+2	13
18	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Sunderland	12	3	3	6	+0	12
20	Aston Villa	11	1	4	6	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+10	25
2	Tottenham	12	6	5	1	+12	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+6	21
4	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
5	Man City	12	5	4	3	+2	19
6	Man United	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Liverpool	13	5	3	5	-3	18
8	Crystal Palace	11	5	2	4	-1	17
9	Everton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
10	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-7	16
11	Watford	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Bournemouth	13	4	3	6	-8	15
13	Southampton	12	3	5	4	-1	14
14	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-5	13
15	Chelsea	11	3	3	5	-3	12
16	Swansea	12	2	4	6	-5	10
17	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-16	8
18	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-17	7
19	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-19	7
20	Aston Villa	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.