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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Chelsea

S U T T S

2–2

Full-time

Watford

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

29%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

65%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

59%

35%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 15. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	5	1	+13	38
2	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+17	36
3	Man City	17	10	2	5	+14	32
4	Tottenham	17	7	8	2	+14	29
5	Crystal Palace	17	9	2	6	+7	29
6	Man United	18	8	5	5	+6	29
7	Watford	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Stoke	18	7	5	6	+0	26
9	West Ham	17	6	7	4	+4	25
10	Liverpool	17	6	6	5	-2	24
11	Everton	17	5	8	4	+7	23
12	Southampton	17	5	6	6	+0	21
13	West Brom	17	5	5	7	-6	20
14	Bournemouth	17	5	4	8	-10	19
15	Chelsea	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-9	17
17	Newcastle	17	4	5	8	-13	17
18	Swansea	17	3	6	8	-9	15
19	Sunderland	17	3	3	11	-15	12
20	Aston Villa	17	1	4	12	-17	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+7	17
3	Leicester	8	5	2	1	+3	17
4	Tottenham	9	4	4	1	+8	16
5	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Watford	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	+3	13
8	Chelsea	9	4	1	4	+1	13
9	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
10	Everton	9	3	3	3	+4	12
11	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	-1	12
12	Southampton	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Newcastle	9	2	4	3	+1	10
14	West Ham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
15	Swansea	9	2	4	3	-4	10
16	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
17	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
18	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Aston Villa	8	0	2	6	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	9	6	3	0	+10	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+10	19
3	Crystal Palace	8	5	1	2	+4	16
4	West Ham	9	4	3	2	+3	15
5	Watford	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Man United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
7	Tottenham	8	3	4	1	+6	13
8	Stoke	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Liverpool	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	West Brom	8	3	3	2	-1	12
11	Everton	8	2	5	1	+3	11
12	Man City	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Southampton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	1	5	-14	7
17	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-5	5
18	Chelsea	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Aston Villa	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Sunderland	9	1	1	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.