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Championship

Referee: Simon Hooper

Birmingham

S T T U U

2–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 44/44 matches

Win Ø 48%

36%

59%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

36%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

32%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 9. · Middlesbrough 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	44	24	15	5	+33	87
2	Middlesbrough	44	26	9	9	+32	87
3	Brighton	42	24	13	5	+30	85
4	Hull	41	23	10	8	+37	79
5	Derby	42	19	14	9	+18	71
6	Sheffield Weds	41	18	14	9	+19	68
7	Cardiff	44	17	16	11	+8	67
8	Ipswich	44	16	15	13	+0	63
9	Birmingham	44	16	13	15	+4	61
10	Brentford	44	17	8	19	-2	59
11	Preston	44	14	16	14	-1	58
12	Leeds	44	14	16	14	-7	58
13	QPR	44	13	18	13	+0	57
14	Wolves	44	13	15	16	-6	54
15	Reading	44	13	13	18	-4	52
16	Huddersfield	44	13	12	19	-3	51
17	Nott'm Forest	44	12	15	17	-5	51
18	Blackburn	44	11	16	17	-3	49
19	Rotherham	44	13	10	21	-13	49
20	Bristol City	44	12	13	19	-20	49
21	Fulham	44	11	15	18	-11	48
22	Milton Keynes Dons	44	9	12	23	-28	39
23	Charlton	44	8	13	23	-38	37
24	Bolton	44	4	15	25	-40	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	22	16	4	2	+26	52
2	Hull	20	14	6	0	+33	48
3	Burnley	22	14	6	2	+23	48
4	Brighton	21	15	3	3	+22	48
5	Cardiff	22	12	8	2	+13	44
6	Sheffield Weds	21	12	7	2	+22	43
7	Derby	21	11	7	3	+18	40
8	QPR	22	9	9	4	+11	36
9	Reading	22	8	9	5	+6	33
10	Ipswich	22	8	8	6	+3	32
11	Brentford	22	9	4	9	+0	31
12	Birmingham	22	9	4	9	+0	31
13	Preston	22	7	9	6	+0	30
14	Rotherham	22	8	6	8	-2	30
15	Blackburn	22	7	8	7	+4	29
16	Leeds	22	7	8	7	-4	29
17	Wolves	22	6	10	6	-1	28
18	Nott'm Forest	22	7	7	8	-1	28
19	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	+4	27
20	Fulham	22	7	5	10	-1	26
21	Bristol City	22	6	7	9	-4	25
22	Milton Keynes Dons	22	7	3	12	-15	24
23	Bolton	22	4	11	7	-3	23
24	Charlton	22	5	8	9	-9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	10	9	3	+10	39
2	Brighton	21	9	10	2	+8	37
3	Middlesbrough	22	10	5	7	+6	35
4	Hull	21	9	4	8	+4	31
5	Derby	21	8	7	6	+0	31
6	Ipswich	22	8	7	7	-3	31
7	Birmingham	22	7	9	6	+4	30
8	Leeds	22	7	8	7	-3	29
9	Preston	22	7	7	8	-1	28
10	Brentford	22	8	4	10	-2	28
11	Wolves	22	7	5	10	-5	26
12	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	-3	25
13	Huddersfield	22	6	6	10	-7	24
14	Bristol City	22	6	6	10	-16	24
15	Nott'm Forest	22	5	8	9	-4	23
16	Cardiff	22	5	8	9	-5	23
17	Fulham	22	4	10	8	-10	22
18	QPR	22	4	9	9	-11	21
19	Blackburn	22	4	8	10	-7	20
20	Reading	22	5	4	13	-10	19
21	Rotherham	22	5	4	13	-11	19
22	Milton Keynes Dons	22	2	9	11	-13	15
23	Charlton	22	3	5	14	-29	14
24	Bolton	22	0	4	18	-37	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.