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Conference League
Referee: E Eskås
Fiorentina
S S T S S
3–2
Full-time
Pafos
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Pafos
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
2,2
2,0
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/9 matches
Win Ø 48%
40%
56%
Points per game
1,6
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
60%
67%
Both score Ø 57%
80%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,9
Conceded
1,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 1,72
49% Possession 51%
13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
11 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina Pafos
1–0 C. Kouamé ⚽
38′
43′
🟨 Ivan Šunjić
Half-time 1–1
1–1 David Goldar ⚽
own goal
52′
Fabiano Parisi 🟨
60′
60′
🟨 Pêpê
M. Moreno 🔁
↦ P. Comuzzo
62′
E. Bove 🔁
↦ L. Beltrán
62′
M. Kayode 🔁
↦ Dodô
62′
68′
⚽ Jairo 1–2
Bruno Felipe
C. Biraghi 🔁
↦ R. Sottil
69′
2–2 L. Martínez Quarta ⚽
M. Kayode
72′
Marin Pongračić 🟨
73′
73′
🟨 João Correia
73′
🔁 Jajá
↦ João Correia
73′
🔁 Domingos Quina
↦ K. Pileas
74′
🔁 Anderson Silva
↦ Jairo
T. Rubino 🔁
↦ L. Martínez Quarta
75′
83′
🟨 Bruno
87′
⚽ Jajá 2–3
88′
🔁 M. Ilia
↦ M. Tanković
88′
🔁 M. Name
↦ Pêpê Rodrigues
Tommaso Rubino 🟨
95′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-2-3-1
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
5 M. Pongračić D
15 P. Comuzzo D
65 F. Parisi D
8 R. Mandragora M
28 L. Martínez Quarta M
11 J. Ikoné M
9 L. Beltrán M
7 R. Sottil M
99 C. Kouamé F
Bench (12)
22 M. Moreno
4 E. Bove
33 M. Kayode
3 C. Biraghi
66 T. Rubino
21 R. Gosens
43 David de Gea
20 M. Kean
6 L. Ranieri
30 T. Martinelli
32 D. Cataldi
23 A. Colpani

Coach: R. Palladino

Pafos

4-2-3-1
1 I. Ivušić G
7 Bruno Felipe D
23 D. Luckassen D
5 David Goldar D
2 K. Pileas D
26 I. Šunjić M
88 Pêpê Rodrigues M
77 João Correia M
30 V. Dragomir M
22 M. Tanković M
10 Jairo F
Bench (10)
11 Jajá
8 Domingos Quina
33 Anderson Silva
70 M. Ilia
25 M. Name
83 P. Theodoulou
45 Rafael Pontelo
19 J. Silva
93 N. Michael
9 Léo Natel

Coach: Carcedo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Eskås · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.