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Conference League
Referee: A Lindhout
Celje
T S T S T
3–3
Full-time
Jagiellonia
S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celje Jagiellonia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 5/3 matches
Win Ø 70%
40%
100%
Points per game
1,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 74%
80%
67%
Both score Ø 57%
80%
33%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,2
2,3
Conceded
1,6
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,37 xG 2,99
58% Possession 42%
19 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 7
8 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Celje Jagiellonia
1–0 D. Zec ⚽
M. Zabukovnik
7′
Juanjo Nieto 🟨
33′
Klemen Nemanič 🟨
33′
34′
❌ Afimico Pululu
penalty missed
34′
⚽ Afimico Pululu 1–1
39′
🟨 Darko Churlinov
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Juanjo Nieto ⚽
A. Matko
53′
57′
🔁 K. Hansen
↦ L. Diaby-Fadiga
68′
🔁 Nené
↦ J. Kubicki
70′
⚽ Jesús Imaz 2–2
K. Hansen
77′
⚽ K. Hansen 2–3
Jesús Imaz
Edmilson 🔁
↦ M. Kvesić
79′
2–4 Adrián Diéguez ⚽
own goal
80′
86′
🟨 Aurelien Nguiamba
86′
🔁 M. Skrzypczak
↦ Tomás Silva
86′
🔁 Miki Villar
↦ D. Churlinov
87′
🔁 M. Listkowski
↦ Afimico Pululu
Full-time 2–4

Line-ups

Celje

4-2-3-1
98 L. Štubljar G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
6 D. Zec D
81 K. Nemanič D
23 Ž. Karničnik D
88 T. Svetlin M
19 M. Zabukovnik M
11 S. Sešlar M
16 M. Kvesić M
77 I. Brnić M
7 A. Matko F
Bench (7)
30 Edmilson
5 C. Lhernault
10 N. Kouter
3 D. Vukliševič
22 M. Rožman
4 M. Dulca
8 L. Bobičanec

Coach: Albert Riera

Jagiellonia

4-2-3-1
50 S. Abramowicz G
16 M. Sáček D
3 D. Stojinović D
17 Adrián Diéguez D
82 Tomás Silva D
39 A. Nguiamba M
14 J. Kubicki M
9 L. Diaby-Fadiga M
11 Jesús Imaz M
21 D. Churlinov M
10 Afimico Pululu F
Bench (12)
99 K. Hansen
8 Nené
72 M. Skrzypczak
20 Miki Villar
29 M. Listkowski
80 O. Pietuszewski
1 M. Stryjek
22 P. Kováčik
5 C. Polak
51 A. Rybak
4 J. Haliti
71 S. Stypulkowski

Coach: A. Siemieniec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Lindhout · 161 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.