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Conference League
Referee: F Letexier
Apoel Nicosia
U T S U T
2–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Apoel Nicosia Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
17%
100%
Points per game
0,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,8
Scored
0,7
3,2
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 2/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
50%
75%
Average goals
1,5
4,0
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,76 xG 1,45
37% Possession 63%
10 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
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Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.