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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Genoa

U T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

0,7

3,2

Conceded

2,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

11%

44%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

44%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 0,46

32% Possession 68%

14 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 20. · Fiorentina 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.9	25
2	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+6.3	21
3	Atalanta	10	6	1	3	+12	+10.1	19
4	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+10	+7.5	18
5	Fiorentina	9	4	4	1	+11	+7.2	16
6	Lazio	9	5	1	3	+5	+5.2	16
7	Udinese	10	5	1	4	+0	-5.5	16
8	Milan	9	4	2	3	+5	+6.2	14
9	Torino	9	4	2	3	+1	-3.6	14
10	Bologna	9	2	6	1	+0	-0.7	12
11	Empoli	10	2	5	3	-2	-6.5	11
12	Roma	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.9	10
13	Parma	10	1	6	3	-2	-1.3	9
14	Como	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.0	9
15	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-5.6	9
16	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-9	-1.5	9
17	Monza	10	1	5	4	-3	-4.5	8
18	Venezia	10	2	2	6	-8	-4.3	8
19	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-15	-6.2	8
20	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-13	-9.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.7	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Atalanta	5	4	0	1	+11	+6.6	12
4	Udinese	5	4	0	1	+4	-1.6	12
5	Fiorentina	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.6	11
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
7	Milan	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.6	10
8	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+4	+5.0	10
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
10	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-8	-1.6	7
11	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	+0.5	6
12	Venezia	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.9	6
13	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
14	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
15	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-7	+0.2	5
17	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
18	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
19	Empoli	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.1	3
20	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.6	11
2	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+4	+1.2	10
3	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.4	8
4	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
5	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.5	8
6	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
7	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.2	7
8	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+5	+1.6	5
9	Monza	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
10	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
11	Parma	5	0	4	1	-1	-1.9	4
12	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.8	4
14	Roma	5	0	4	1	-4	-2.3	4
15	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
16	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.2	3
17	Verona	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.0	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	5	0	1	4	-7	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.