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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Nogueira

Nacional

U T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Alverca

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 26%

21%

31%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

45%

55%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,03 xG 0,47

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Alverca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	29	24	4	1	+45	+34.5	76
2	Sp Lisbon	28	22	5	1	+56	+38.8	71
3	Benfica	29	20	9	0	+43	+34.6	69
4	Sp Braga	28	15	7	6	+28	+22.8	52
5	Famalicao	29	13	8	8	+11	+10.9	47
6	Gil Vicente	29	12	10	7	+14	+9.8	46
7	Estoril	29	10	7	12	+1	-9.1	37
8	Guimaraes	29	10	6	13	-8	-3.2	36
9	Moreirense	29	10	6	13	-9	-16.4	36
10	Alverca	29	9	8	12	-15	-1.1	35
11	Rio Ave	30	8	10	12	-17	-16.2	34
12	Arouca	29	9	5	15	-21	-17.9	32
13	Santa Clara	29	7	7	15	-11	-1.6	28
14	Estrela	29	6	10	13	-15	-10.4	28
15	Nacional	29	6	7	16	-10	-12.7	25
16	Casa Pia	28	5	10	13	-24	-25.3	25
17	Tondela	28	4	9	15	-25	-10.2	21
18	AVS	30	1	10	19	-43	-27.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	+18.6	36
2	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+25	+22.5	35
3	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+34	+24.4	34
4	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+16	+12.9	27
5	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
6	Gil Vicente	14	8	3	3	+13	+6.2	27
7	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
8	Estoril	15	6	5	4	+6	-4.8	23
9	Alverca	15	6	4	5	-6	+6.0	22
10	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.6	20
11	Arouca	14	5	3	6	-6	-5.7	18
12	Estrela	15	4	5	6	-2	+2.0	17
13	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	+1.6	17
14	Nacional	14	4	2	8	-2	-4.4	14
15	Rio Ave	15	3	5	7	-9	-3.1	14
16	Casa Pia	13	2	7	4	-6	-11.6	13
17	Tondela	15	1	7	7	-8	-4.8	10
18	AVS	15	1	5	9	-14	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+22	+15.9	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+22	+14.4	37
3	Benfica	14	10	4	0	+18	+12.0	34
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+12	+9.9	25
5	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-3	+1.2	20
6	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-8	-13.1	20
7	Gil Vicente	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.6	19
8	Moreirense	15	4	4	7	-6	-8.8	16
9	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
10	Arouca	15	4	2	9	-15	-12.2	14
11	Alverca	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.1	13
12	Casa Pia	15	3	3	9	-18	-13.7	12
13	Santa Clara	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.1	11
14	Nacional	15	2	5	8	-8	-8.3	11
15	Estrela	14	2	5	7	-13	-12.4	11
16	Guimaraes	14	3	2	9	-14	-2.2	11
17	Tondela	13	3	2	8	-17	-5.4	11
18	AVS	15	0	5	10	-29	-16.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.