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Primeira Liga

Referee: L Filipe

Alverca

U U U T S

3–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 24%

29%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

54%

48%

Both score Ø 53%

57%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,83 xG 0,65

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 11. · Casa Pia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	28	23	4	1	+43	+32.2	73
2	Sp Lisbon	28	22	5	1	+56	+38.8	71
3	Benfica	28	19	9	0	+41	+31.4	66
4	Sp Braga	27	14	7	6	+27	+23.1	49
5	Famalicao	29	13	8	8	+11	+10.9	47
6	Gil Vicente	28	12	9	7	+14	+9.9	45
7	Estoril	28	10	7	11	+3	-6.8	37
8	Guimaraes	29	10	6	13	-8	-3.2	36
9	Moreirense	29	10	6	13	-9	-16.4	36
10	Rio Ave	29	8	9	12	-17	-16.9	33
11	Alverca	28	8	8	12	-17	-2.3	32
12	Arouca	28	9	5	14	-20	-18.2	32
13	Santa Clara	29	7	7	15	-11	-1.6	28
14	Estrela	29	6	10	13	-15	-10.4	28
15	Nacional	28	6	7	15	-8	-9.5	25
16	Casa Pia	27	5	10	12	-22	-24.1	25
17	Tondela	27	4	8	15	-25	-10.3	20
18	AVS	29	1	9	19	-43	-26.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	11	3	0	+23	+18.6	36
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+34	+24.4	34
3	Benfica	14	9	5	0	+23	+19.3	32
4	Famalicao	15	8	3	4	+14	+9.7	27
5	Gil Vicente	14	8	3	3	+13	+6.2	27
6	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
7	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+15	+13.1	24
8	Estoril	14	6	5	3	+8	-2.5	23
9	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.6	20
10	Alverca	14	5	4	5	-8	+4.8	19
11	Arouca	14	5	3	6	-6	-5.7	18
12	Estrela	15	4	5	6	-2	+2.0	17
13	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	+1.6	17
14	Nacional	14	4	2	8	-2	-4.4	14
15	Casa Pia	13	2	7	4	-6	-11.6	13
16	Rio Ave	14	3	4	7	-9	-3.8	13
17	Tondela	14	1	6	7	-8	-4.9	9
18	AVS	15	1	5	9	-14	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+22	+14.4	37
2	Porto	14	12	1	1	+20	+13.6	37
3	Benfica	14	10	4	0	+18	+12.0	34
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+12	+9.9	25
5	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-3	+1.2	20
6	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-8	-13.1	20
7	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+1	+3.7	18
8	Moreirense	15	4	4	7	-6	-8.8	16
9	Estoril	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
10	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-14	-12.5	14
11	Alverca	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.1	13
12	Casa Pia	14	3	3	8	-16	-12.5	12
13	Nacional	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.1	11
14	Santa Clara	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.1	11
15	Estrela	14	2	5	7	-13	-12.4	11
16	Guimaraes	14	3	2	9	-14	-2.2	11
17	Tondela	13	3	2	8	-17	-5.4	11
18	AVS	14	0	4	10	-29	-15.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.