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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Sp Braga

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 43%

59%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 41%

45%

36%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,39 xG 0,30

55% Possession 45%

20 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Nacional 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	22	16	4	2	+41	+33.8	52
2	Benfica	22	16	2	4	+32	+26.2	50
3	Porto	22	14	4	4	+28	+22.4	46
4	Sp Braga	22	13	5	4	+18	+14.9	44
5	Santa Clara	22	12	2	8	+2	+7.1	38
6	Casa Pia	22	9	6	7	+1	-5.1	33
7	Guimaraes	22	7	10	5	+5	+7.8	31
8	Estoril	22	8	7	7	-6	-15.6	31
9	Famalicao	22	6	10	6	+0	-6.0	28
10	Moreirense	22	7	5	10	-5	+1.1	26
11	Rio Ave	22	6	8	8	-12	-15.7	26
12	Arouca	22	6	6	10	-13	-9.1	24
13	Nacional	22	6	5	11	-9	-3.7	23
14	Gil Vicente	22	5	7	10	-11	-8.5	22
15	Estrela	22	5	5	12	-15	-13.4	20
16	AVS	22	3	10	9	-15	-10.8	19
17	Farense	22	3	6	13	-18	-15.6	15
18	Boavista	22	2	6	14	-23	-10.1	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+27	+17.9	30
2	Porto	11	9	2	0	+23	+22.2	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+18	+14.3	28
4	Santa Clara	12	7	1	4	+1	+9.3	22
5	Guimaraes	11	5	5	1	+6	+6.2	20
6	Casa Pia	11	5	4	2	+5	+1.8	19
7	Moreirense	11	5	4	2	+2	-0.6	19
8	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+8	+12.9	18
9	Rio Ave	11	4	6	1	+1	-0.8	18
10	Estoril	11	5	3	3	-1	-5.8	18
11	Nacional	11	5	2	4	-2	-1.1	17
12	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
13	Estrela	11	4	2	5	-3	-5.1	14
14	AVS	11	3	4	4	-5	-6.2	13
15	Famalicao	11	2	6	3	-2	-0.3	12
16	Arouca	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.9	12
17	Farense	11	2	1	8	-11	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+10	+2.0	26
2	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+23	+19.5	24
3	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
4	Porto	11	5	2	4	+5	+0.2	17
5	Famalicao	11	4	4	3	+2	-5.7	16
6	Santa Clara	10	5	1	4	+1	-2.2	16
7	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-4	-6.8	14
8	Estoril	11	3	4	4	-5	-9.8	13
9	Arouca	12	3	3	6	-9	-3.2	12
10	Guimaraes	11	2	5	4	-1	+1.6	11
11	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-9	-6.1	9
12	Farense	11	1	5	5	-7	-10.9	8
13	Rio Ave	11	2	2	7	-13	-14.9	8
14	Moreirense	11	2	1	8	-7	+1.6	7
15	Nacional	11	1	3	7	-7	-2.6	6
16	AVS	11	0	6	5	-10	-4.6	6
17	Estrela	11	1	3	7	-12	-8.3	6
18	Gil Vicente	11	1	3	7	-15	-9.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.