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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Moreirense

S U T S T

2–2

Full-time

Estrela

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

2,3

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 33%

44%

22%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

33%

44%

Both score Ø 41%

30%

52%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,11 xG 1,65

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Moreirense 6. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	27	23	2	2	+52	+35.7	71
2	Benfica	28	21	4	3	+39	+33.4	67
3	Porto	27	18	4	5	+31	+24.8	58
4	Sp Braga	28	17	5	6	+20	+18.2	56
5	Guimaraes	27	16	5	6	+15	+8.1	53
6	Moreirense	27	12	6	9	+0	+0.4	42
7	Arouca	28	12	4	12	+10	-1.8	40
8	Famalicao	27	8	10	9	-4	-7.8	34
9	Farense	28	8	6	14	-3	-8.0	30
10	Casa Pia	27	8	6	13	-12	-11.1	30
11	Rio Ave	28	5	14	9	-6	+3.3	29
12	Boavista	28	7	8	13	-20	-15.3	29
13	Estoril	27	8	4	15	-6	-10.2	28
14	Gil Vicente	28	7	7	14	-8	-9.5	28
15	Estrela	27	6	8	13	-14	-9.4	26
16	Portimonense	28	7	5	16	-30	-20.3	26
17	Vizela	28	4	9	15	-31	-10.6	21
18	Chaves	28	4	7	17	-33	-19.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	14	0	0	+37	+23.7	42
2	Benfica	14	12	2	0	+31	+25.0	38
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+22	+20.1	32
4	Guimaraes	14	10	1	3	+13	+10.9	31
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+12	+18.1	27
6	Estoril	14	7	1	6	+8	+1.3	22
7	Gil Vicente	14	5	6	3	+8	-4.1	21
8	Rio Ave	14	5	6	3	+4	+7.6	21
9	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
10	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+1	-2.1	20
11	Famalicao	13	5	5	3	+0	-1.8	20
12	Farense	14	5	4	5	+4	+1.5	19
13	Estrela	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.2	17
14	Boavista	14	4	5	5	-9	-3.6	17
15	Portimonense	14	3	4	7	-11	-8.3	13
16	Chaves	14	3	3	8	-12	-4.4	12
17	Casa Pia	13	2	4	7	-8	-3.1	10
18	Vizela	14	2	4	8	-15	-0.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	9	2	2	+15	+12.0	29
2	Sp Braga	14	9	2	3	+8	+0.1	29
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+8	+8.4	29
4	Porto	14	8	2	4	+9	+4.6	26
5	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+2	-2.8	22
6	Moreirense	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.8	21
7	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+9	+0.3	20
8	Casa Pia	14	6	2	6	-4	-8.0	20
9	Famalicao	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.0	14
10	Portimonense	14	4	1	9	-19	-12.0	13
11	Boavista	14	3	3	8	-11	-11.8	12
12	Farense	14	3	2	9	-7	-9.5	11
13	Vizela	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.8	11
14	Estrela	13	1	6	6	-11	-6.2	9
15	Rio Ave	14	0	8	6	-10	-4.3	8
16	Gil Vicente	14	2	1	11	-16	-5.4	7
17	Chaves	14	1	4	9	-21	-15.2	7
18	Estoril	13	1	3	9	-14	-11.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.