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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz

Vallecano

T T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Leganes

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Leganes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

57%

14%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

2,1

1,7

Scored

1,1

0,6

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,91 xG 0,73

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 9. · Leganes 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.1	21
2	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+11.3	17
3	Ath Madrid	7	4	3	0	+8	+5.1	15
4	Mallorca	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
5	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+0	+0.6	14
6	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+4	-0.5	13
7	Osasuna	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.9	11
8	Alaves	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.4	10
9	Vallecano	7	2	3	2	+1	-0.8	9
10	Celta	7	3	0	4	+0	+2.2	9
11	Betis	7	2	3	2	+0	+4.6	9
12	Girona	7	2	2	3	-2	+4.2	8
13	Sevilla	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.7	8
14	Getafe	8	1	4	3	-1	-0.0	7
15	Espanol	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.8	7
16	Leganes	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.9	6
17	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-3.1	5
18	Valencia	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
19	Valladolid	8	1	2	5	-13	-8.4	5
20	Las Palmas	7	0	3	4	-5	-7.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.2	12
2	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.9	10
3	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
4	Celta	4	3	0	1	+4	+1.9	9
5	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
6	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.2	7
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
9	Getafe	4	1	3	0	+2	+3.5	6
10	Espanol	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.7	6
11	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
12	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
13	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
14	Valladolid	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.6	5
15	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.6	4
16	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.7	4
17	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.4	4
18	Las Palmas	4	0	3	1	-1	-4.8	3
19	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.6	12
2	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.0	10
3	Mallorca	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.7	9
4	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.4	8
5	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
6	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
7	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
8	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
9	Girona	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
10	Leganes	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.5	3
11	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.3	3
12	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
13	Betis	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
14	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
15	Espanol	3	0	1	2	-4	-6.1	1
16	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.8	1
17	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.4	0
18	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
19	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.