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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Arouca

T T U T T

0–2

Full-time

Benfica

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 45%

18%

72%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

61%

Both score Ø 63%

65%

61%

Average goals

2,9

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

8 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

21 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	16	2	0	+36	50
2	Sp Lisbon	18	15	2	1	+24	47
3	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+34	41
4	Sp Braga	18	9	5	4	+13	32
5	Gil Vicente	18	7	6	5	+6	27
6	Estoril	17	6	7	4	+4	25
7	Portimonense	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Guimaraes	18	6	6	6	+4	24
9	Maritimo	18	6	5	7	-4	23
10	Boavista	18	3	9	6	-8	18
11	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	6	8	-9	18
12	Tondela	18	5	2	11	-12	17
13	Santa Clara	18	4	5	9	-17	17
14	Moreirense	18	3	7	8	-9	16
15	Famalicao	18	3	7	8	-10	16
16	Vizela	18	3	7	8	-14	16
17	Arouca	17	3	5	9	-16	14
18	Belenenses	18	2	5	11	-22	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+13	25
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+18	24
3	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+9	18
5	Boavista	10	3	6	1	+3	15
6	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	-6	15
7	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	Tondela	9	4	0	5	-3	12
10	Gil Vicente	9	3	2	4	+1	11
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-5	10
12	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-8	10
13	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Portimonense	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Estoril	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Famalicao	9	1	4	4	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+19	22
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+11	22
4	Estoril	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Portimonense	8	5	1	2	+5	16
7	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+4	14
8	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
9	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-2	10
10	Famalicao	9	2	3	4	-3	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-8	7
13	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-9	6
14	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-9	5
15	Arouca	9	0	4	5	-8	4
16	Belenenses	9	0	3	6	-10	3
17	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-11	3
18	Santa Clara	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.