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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Arouca

U S U S S

0–3

Full-time

Benfica

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

27%

73%

Points per game

1,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,89 xG 2,28

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 6

12 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 12. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+20	+17.1	40
2	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+18	+17.5	36
3	Porto	16	11	2	3	+11	+10.4	35
4	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+17	+11.0	32
5	Guimaraes	15	9	2	4	+8	+2.6	29
6	Moreirense	15	7	5	3	+7	+0.1	26
7	Farense	16	6	3	7	+1	-6.0	21
8	Famalicao	15	4	6	5	-5	-5.0	18
9	Estoril	16	5	2	9	+1	-8.9	17
10	Estrela	16	4	5	7	-6	-4.7	17
11	Boavista	16	4	5	7	-8	-7.6	17
12	Arouca	15	4	4	7	+2	+0.9	16
13	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-6	-3.9	16
14	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-4	-6.5	15
15	Portimonense	15	4	3	8	-17	-8.8	15
16	Vizela	16	2	7	7	-8	-3.8	13
17	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-8	+3.5	12
18	Chaves	15	3	1	11	-23	-7.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+11	+10.9	17
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+5	+10.2	16
5	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+9	-1.6	15
6	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
7	Estoril	7	4	1	2	+12	+1.5	13
8	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+9	+10.7	13
9	Moreirense	7	3	2	2	+3	+0.4	11
10	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	-1	-1.4	11
11	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
12	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
13	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-2	+3.3	9
14	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.6	8
15	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-4	-3.7	8
16	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-4	+0.1	7
17	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.3	6
18	Casa Pia	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.3	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+0.2	19
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+7	+6.6	19
3	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
4	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
5	Sp Lisbon	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.6	13
6	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-1	-3.1	11
7	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
8	Arouca	7	2	2	3	+3	+1.4	8
9	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
10	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
11	Boavista	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.7	7
12	Farense	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.3	7
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.6	7
14	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-13	-5.1	7
15	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
16	Rio Ave	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.2	3
17	Chaves	8	1	0	7	-19	-7.9	3
18	Gil Vicente	8	0	0	8	-13	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.