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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Malec

Stal Mielec

S S U S T

3–1

Full-time

Ruch Chorzow

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Ruch Chorzow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

39%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,84 xG 0,95

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 8. · Ruch Chorzow 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	24	13	6	5	+20	+11.0	45
2	Slask Wroclaw	24	13	6	5	+13	+2.8	45
3	Lech Poznan	24	11	8	5	+6	-3.0	41
4	Rakow	23	11	7	5	+18	+15.4	40
5	Pogon Szczecin	23	12	4	7	+18	+11.8	40
6	Legia	23	10	8	5	+7	+9.3	38
7	Gornik Zabrze	24	10	6	8	+4	-3.3	36
8	Stal Mielec	23	9	5	9	-2	-10.4	32
9	Radomiak Radom	24	8	7	9	-7	+0.2	31
10	Zaglebie	23	8	6	9	-10	+1.8	30
11	Widzew Lodz	23	8	4	11	-4	-3.3	28
12	Cracovia	24	5	12	7	-1	-0.4	27
13	Warta Poznan	23	6	9	8	-4	-8.0	27
14	Piast Gliwice	23	4	13	6	-4	+8.4	25
15	Korona Kielce	23	4	11	8	-4	-1.8	23
16	Puszcza	23	5	8	10	-12	-15.2	23
17	Ruch Chorzow	23	2	12	9	-10	-4.2	18
18	LKS Lodz	23	3	4	16	-28	-10.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	12	9	3	0	+23	+12.1	30
2	Jagiellonia	12	9	2	1	+20	+11.1	29
3	Lech Poznan	12	7	3	2	+12	+1.3	24
4	Gornik Zabrze	12	7	3	2	+6	-2.5	24
5	Legia	12	6	4	2	+9	+10.6	22
6	Stal Mielec	11	6	3	2	+7	-1.0	21
7	Slask Wroclaw	12	6	3	3	+7	+7.3	21
8	Zaglebie	12	5	4	3	+0	+0.2	19
9	Puszcza	12	4	6	2	+0	-4.5	18
10	Widzew Lodz	11	6	0	5	-1	+4.2	18
11	Pogon Szczecin	11	5	2	4	+5	+12.7	17
12	Korona Kielce	11	3	6	2	+3	+6.3	15
13	Cracovia	12	3	5	4	+1	+1.1	14
14	Piast Gliwice	11	3	5	3	+1	+8.7	14
15	Radomiak Radom	12	3	5	4	-2	+2.3	14
16	LKS Lodz	12	3	4	5	-10	-8.2	13
17	Ruch Chorzow	12	2	6	4	-2	+1.5	12
18	Warta Poznan	11	2	4	5	-4	-3.3	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	12	7	3	2	+6	-4.4	24
2	Pogon Szczecin	12	7	2	3	+13	-1.0	23
3	Warta Poznan	12	4	5	3	+0	-4.7	17
4	Radomiak Radom	12	5	2	5	-5	-2.1	17
5	Lech Poznan	12	4	5	3	-6	-4.3	17
6	Jagiellonia	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.1	16
7	Legia	11	4	4	3	-2	-1.2	16
8	Cracovia	12	2	7	3	-2	-1.5	13
9	Gornik Zabrze	12	3	3	6	-2	-0.8	12
10	Piast Gliwice	12	1	8	3	-5	-0.3	11
11	Stal Mielec	12	3	2	7	-9	-9.4	11
12	Zaglebie	11	3	2	6	-10	+1.7	11
13	Widzew Lodz	12	2	4	6	-3	-7.5	10
14	Rakow	11	2	4	5	-5	+3.3	10
15	Korona Kielce	12	1	5	6	-7	-8.1	8
16	Ruch Chorzow	11	0	6	5	-8	-5.8	6
17	Puszcza	11	1	2	8	-12	-10.7	5
18	LKS Lodz	11	0	0	11	-18	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.