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La Liga
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Las Palmas
U S T U U
0–2
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 45%
37%
52%
Points per game
1,4
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
33%
48%
Both score Ø 41%
44%
37%
Average goals
2,1
2,7
Scored
1,1
1,7
Conceded
1,1
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,25 xG 0,79
71% Possession 29%
14 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 2
10 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Corners 3
3 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Las Palmas 9. · Ath Bilbao 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 27 20 6 1 +38 +24.4 66
2 Girona 28 19 5 4 +26 +10.1 62
3 Barcelona 28 18 7 3 +23 +33.0 61
4 Ath Madrid 28 17 4 7 +23 +19.3 55
5 Ath Bilbao 27 14 8 5 +20 +15.3 50
6 Sociedad 28 11 10 7 +9 +4.5 43
7 Betis 27 10 12 5 +4 -3.6 42
8 Valencia 27 11 7 9 +1 -3.1 40
9 Las Palmas 27 10 7 10 +0 -16.6 37
10 Osasuna 28 10 6 12 -8 -6.0 36
11 Getafe 28 8 11 9 -6 -6.9 35
12 Villarreal 27 8 8 11 -6 -3.9 32
13 Alaves 28 8 8 12 -7 +1.6 32
14 Sevilla 27 6 9 12 -7 -11.4 27
15 Mallorca 28 5 12 11 -11 -6.0 27
16 Vallecano 28 5 11 12 -15 -4.4 26
17 Celta 27 5 9 13 -9 -5.0 24
18 Cadiz 28 3 13 12 -18 -14.3 22
19 Granada 27 2 8 17 -27 -15.2 14
20 Almeria 27 0 9 18 -30 -11.9 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,97
U
3,37
B ✓
2,01
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,19
U2,5 ✓
1,69
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.