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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Bristol City

S T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 32%

33%

31%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

42%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

53%

69%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,50 xG 0,62

27% Possession 73%

5 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 0

0 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 14. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	37	26	4	7	+41	+29.7	82
2	Ipswich	37	23	9	5	+25	+20.4	78
3	Leeds	35	22	7	6	+38	+31.1	73
4	Southampton	34	20	7	7	+23	+26.3	67
5	West Brom	35	18	9	8	+24	+6.2	63
6	Norwich	35	17	7	11	+14	-0.7	58
7	Hull	37	16	10	11	+7	+6.7	58
8	Coventry	37	15	12	10	+16	+11.8	57
9	Preston	36	15	8	13	-6	-12.8	53
10	Cardiff	37	16	5	16	-6	-17.7	53
11	Middlesbrough	36	15	5	16	+0	+11.8	50
12	Sunderland	37	14	5	18	+3	+6.1	47
13	Watford	37	11	12	14	+1	+1.6	45
14	Bristol City	36	12	8	16	-2	-2.0	44
15	Swansea	36	11	10	15	-11	-10.7	43
16	Millwall	37	11	10	16	-12	-11.6	43
17	Plymouth	37	10	11	16	-7	-16.4	41
18	Blackburn	37	11	8	18	-13	-6.4	41
19	Stoke	37	11	8	18	-15	-3.1	41
20	QPR	37	10	9	18	-14	-7.4	39
21	Birmingham	36	10	9	17	-15	-8.5	39
22	Huddersfield	37	8	14	15	-19	-11.6	38
23	Sheffield Weds	37	11	5	21	-25	-6.1	38
24	Rotherham	37	3	10	24	-47	-36.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	13	4	0	+26	+20.8	43
2	Ipswich	18	13	4	1	+18	+19.4	43
3	Norwich	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.0	41
4	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
5	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
6	Southampton	17	11	2	4	+20	+18.3	35
7	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
8	Preston	19	9	4	6	-3	-6.3	31
9	Sunderland	18	10	0	8	+7	+7.7	30
10	Cardiff	19	9	3	7	+1	-7.3	30
11	Hull	19	7	7	5	+7	+7.5	28
12	Plymouth	18	8	4	6	+6	-6.4	28
13	Birmingham	17	7	6	4	+4	-0.4	27
14	Sheffield Weds	19	7	4	8	-3	+1.4	25
15	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+1	+1.3	24
16	Middlesbrough	18	7	3	8	-1	+8.6	24
17	Blackburn	19	6	5	8	-4	+1.8	23
18	Huddersfield	19	5	7	7	-5	-3.2	22
19	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-7	+0.4	22
20	Millwall	19	6	4	9	-11	-4.1	22
21	Watford	19	5	6	8	+3	+8.6	21
22	Swansea	18	5	5	8	-6	-1.8	20
23	QPR	19	4	6	9	-8	-0.0	18
24	Rotherham	18	3	6	9	-7	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	13	3	3	+19	+14.3	42
2	Ipswich	19	10	5	4	+7	+1.0	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	18	9	3	6	+12	+10.2	30
5	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
6	Middlesbrough	18	8	2	8	+1	+3.1	26
7	Coventry	19	7	4	8	+4	+4.3	25
8	West Brom	18	6	6	6	+7	-3.1	24
9	Watford	18	6	6	6	-2	-7.0	24
10	Swansea	18	6	5	7	-5	-9.0	23
11	Cardiff	18	7	2	9	-7	-10.4	23
12	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
13	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-1	-7.5	21
14	QPR	18	6	3	9	-6	-7.4	21
15	Bristol City	18	5	5	8	-3	-3.2	20
16	Stoke	19	5	4	10	-8	-3.4	19
17	Blackburn	18	5	3	10	-9	-8.1	18
18	Sunderland	19	4	5	10	-4	-1.6	17
19	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-6	-9.7	17
20	Huddersfield	18	3	7	8	-14	-8.3	16
21	Plymouth	19	2	7	10	-13	-10.0	13
22	Sheffield Weds	18	4	1	13	-22	-7.5	13
23	Birmingham	19	3	3	13	-19	-8.1	12
24	Rotherham	19	0	4	15	-40	-27.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.