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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Chaves

U U T S U

1–5

Full-time

Arouca

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 28%

17%

39%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

61%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,79 xG 1,74

37% Possession 63%

11 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 17. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	23	18	4	1	+41	+30.2	58
2	Sp Lisbon	22	18	2	2	+41	+28.2	56
3	Porto	23	15	4	4	+21	+17.5	49
4	Sp Braga	23	14	4	5	+17	+15.1	46
5	Guimaraes	23	12	5	6	+10	+7.1	41
6	Moreirense	23	11	5	7	+1	-0.9	38
7	Arouca	23	9	4	10	+6	+0.0	31
8	Farense	23	7	5	11	-2	-8.1	26
9	Gil Vicente	23	7	5	11	-3	-8.2	26
10	Famalicao	22	6	8	8	-5	-6.8	26
11	Casa Pia	23	7	5	11	-13	-8.2	26
12	Boavista	23	6	6	11	-14	-10.4	24
13	Estoril	23	6	4	13	-4	-10.9	22
14	Rio Ave	23	4	10	9	-9	+2.8	22
15	Estrela	23	5	7	11	-12	-8.5	22
16	Portimonense	23	6	4	13	-25	-16.6	22
17	Chaves	23	4	6	13	-26	-13.5	18
18	Vizela	23	3	8	12	-24	-8.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+30	+18.7	33
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+28	+20.8	32
3	Porto	11	8	2	1	+14	+15.0	26
4	Guimaraes	12	8	1	3	+11	+9.1	25
5	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+11	+17.1	21
6	Gil Vicente	12	5	5	2	+9	-5.0	20
7	Arouca	12	5	2	5	+3	+0.2	17
8	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	+5.5	17
9	Moreirense	11	5	2	4	+0	-0.6	17
10	Estoril	11	5	1	5	+8	-0.6	16
11	Farense	12	4	3	5	+2	+0.2	15
12	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.7	15
13	Estrela	12	4	2	6	-4	-4.4	14
14	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.9	13
15	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-6	-2.8	12
16	Portimonense	11	3	3	5	-6	-4.9	12
17	Casa Pia	11	2	3	6	-7	-2.4	9
18	Vizela	12	1	4	7	-12	-1.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+13	+9.5	26
2	Sp Braga	12	8	1	3	+6	-2.0	25
3	Sp Lisbon	11	7	2	2	+11	+9.5	23
4	Porto	12	7	2	3	+7	+2.6	23
5	Moreirense	12	6	3	3	+1	-0.2	21
6	Casa Pia	12	5	2	5	-6	-5.8	17
7	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	-1	-2.0	16
8	Arouca	11	4	2	5	+3	-0.2	14
9	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-4	-6.5	11
10	Farense	11	3	2	6	-4	-8.4	11
11	Famalicao	12	2	5	5	-4	-5.1	11
12	Vizela	11	2	4	5	-12	-7.4	10
13	Portimonense	12	3	1	8	-19	-11.6	10
14	Estrela	11	1	5	5	-8	-4.2	8
15	Estoril	12	1	3	8	-12	-10.3	6
16	Gil Vicente	11	2	0	9	-12	-3.2	6
17	Chaves	12	1	3	8	-20	-10.8	6
18	Rio Ave	11	0	5	6	-10	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.