Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Porto
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benfica
|
28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | +51 | 71 |
| 2 |
Porto
|
27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | +40 | 64 |
| 3 |
Sp Braga
|
27 | 20 | 2 | 5 | +36 | 62 |
| 4 |
Sp Lisbon
|
27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | +30 | 57 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 |
Famalicao
|
28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 |
Vizela
|
27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +3 | 38 |
| 9 |
Casa Pia
|
27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | -5 | 38 |
| 10 |
Chaves
|
28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 34 |
| 12 |
Boavista
|
27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 |
Gil Vicente
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 31 |
| 14 |
Portimonense
|
28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 |
Estoril
|
28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 |
Maritimo
|
28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 |
Santa Clara
|
27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -25 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Diogo Costa
G
S. Eustáquio
M
Pepê Aquino
M
Toni Martínez
F
Coach: Sérgio Conceição
Coach: Accioly
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Benfica
Porto
Porto
Portimonense
Sp Braga
Porto
Porto
Inter
Porto
Estoril
Cláudio Pereira · 78 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.