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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Aston Villa

U S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 50%

47%

52%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,93 xG 0,52

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 6. · Newcastle 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	30	23	4	3	+43	+10.1	73
2	Man City	29	21	4	4	+48	+17.2	67
3	Newcastle	29	15	11	3	+27	+7.1	56
4	Man United	29	17	5	7	+7	+0.4	56
5	Tottenham	30	16	5	9	+13	+0.5	53
6	Aston Villa	30	14	5	11	+1	-2.7	47
7	Brighton	28	13	7	8	+16	+13.2	46
8	Liverpool	29	12	8	9	+15	+4.3	44
9	Brentford	30	10	13	7	+7	+2.0	43
10	Fulham	29	11	6	12	-1	-6.3	39
11	Chelsea	30	10	9	11	-2	+5.6	39
12	Crystal Palace	30	8	9	13	-11	-3.3	33
13	Wolves	30	8	7	15	-18	-5.0	31
14	West Ham	29	8	6	15	-12	-0.4	30
15	Bournemouth	30	8	6	16	-29	-4.7	30
16	Leeds	30	7	8	15	-15	-6.6	29
17	Everton	30	6	9	15	-20	-8.0	27
18	Nott'm Forest	30	6	9	15	-30	-9.4	27
19	Leicester	30	7	4	19	-12	-5.5	25
20	Southampton	30	6	5	19	-27	-8.5	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
2	Man City	14	12	1	1	+33	+10.2	37
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+14	+1.5	33
5	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+25	+7.9	31
6	Newcastle	14	8	5	1	+14	+4.1	29
7	Brentford	15	7	6	2	+13	+2.5	27
8	Aston Villa	15	8	2	5	+6	+0.8	26
9	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
10	Chelsea	15	6	5	4	+4	+6.3	23
11	Fulham	15	6	4	5	+0	-1.3	22
12	Nott'm Forest	15	5	6	4	+1	-4.1	21
13	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.6	21
14	Leeds	15	5	5	5	-3	-0.1	20
15	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
16	Wolves	15	6	2	7	-6	+0.2	20
17	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.5	19
18	Everton	15	5	3	7	-4	-0.1	18
19	Leicester	15	3	3	9	-3	-2.5	12
20	Southampton	15	2	4	9	-13	-4.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	11	2	2	+19	+1.6	35
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	15	7	6	2	+13	+3.0	27
4	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+5	+4.3	22
5	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	-5	-3.4	21
6	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	-1	-1.0	20
7	Man United	14	6	2	6	-12	-7.2	20
8	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-1	-5.1	17
9	Brentford	15	3	7	5	-6	-0.6	16
10	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
11	Crystal Palace	15	3	4	8	-6	+0.5	13
12	Leicester	15	4	1	10	-9	-2.9	13
13	Liverpool	15	3	4	8	-10	-3.6	13
14	Southampton	15	4	1	10	-14	-3.9	13
15	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
16	Bournemouth	15	3	2	10	-25	-3.2	11
17	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
18	West Ham	14	2	3	9	-12	-4.0	9
19	Everton	15	1	6	8	-16	-7.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	15	1	3	11	-31	-5.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.