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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

U S T S S

4–3

Full-time

Tondela

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

63%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

75%

38%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 4. · Tondela 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+16	23
2	Benfica	8	6	0	2	+9	18
3	Sp Braga	8	6	0	2	+6	18
4	Porto	8	5	1	2	+9	16
5	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	+0	16
6	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+2	14
7	Nacional	8	2	4	2	+0	10
8	Santa Clara	8	3	1	4	-1	10
9	Rio Ave	8	2	4	2	-2	10
10	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-5	10
11	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Belenenses	8	1	5	2	-2	8
14	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-8	8
15	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-4	7
16	Boavista	8	1	4	3	-5	7
17	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-6	7
18	Farense	8	1	2	5	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Tondela	5	2	1	2	-3	7
9	Nacional	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
11	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-4	6
12	Farense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Guimaraes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+5	9
4	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
6	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	-1	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Famalicao	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Boavista	4	0	3	1	-2	3
13	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.