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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Porto

U S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Tondela

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 58%

79%

36%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

43%

36%

Both score Ø 33%

29%

36%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

0,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 0

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Tondela 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	14	0	1	+33	42
2	Porto	14	11	2	1	+23	35
3	Sp Lisbon	14	8	2	4	+9	26
4	Famalicao	14	7	3	4	+1	24
5	Guimaraes	15	5	7	3	+7	22
6	Rio Ave	15	6	4	5	+2	22
7	Tondela	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Setubal	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	7	3	-2	19
10	Moreirense	15	4	6	5	-1	18
11	Sp Braga	15	5	3	7	-2	18
12	Gil Vicente	15	4	6	5	-2	18
13	Boavista	15	4	6	5	-2	18
14	Maritimo	15	3	7	5	-8	16
15	Santa Clara	15	3	6	6	-8	15
16	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-10	15
17	Portimonense	15	2	7	6	-9	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	2	10	-13	11
19	Aves	15	2	0	13	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+21	24
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Gil Vicente	9	3	6	0	+5	15
4	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+10	14
5	Moreirense	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Setubal	8	3	5	0	+3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	5	0	+3	14
9	Famalicao	6	4	1	1	+5	13
10	Sp Lisbon	6	4	0	2	+4	12
11	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Maritimo	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Boavista	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Santa Clara	9	2	3	4	-5	9
15	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	1	5	-3	7
16	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Aves	6	2	0	4	-1	6
18	Portimonense	7	1	3	3	-3	6
19	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Tondela	8	4	3	1	+4	15
3	Sp Lisbon	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Porto	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Famalicao	8	3	2	3	-4	11
6	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	9
7	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-2	8
8	Guimaraes	8	1	5	2	-3	8
9	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-7	8
10	Sp Braga	8	2	1	5	-3	7
11	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-6	7
12	Santa Clara	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-7	6
14	Setubal	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Moreirense	8	0	4	4	-6	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	7	1	1	5	-10	4
18	Gil Vicente	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Aves	9	0	0	9	-15	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.