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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Stoke

S S T U S

1–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

47%

40%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

40%

27%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

0 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 8. · Middlesbrough 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	16	8	6	2	+13	30
2	Reading	16	9	3	4	+7	30
3	Norwich	15	8	4	3	+5	28
4	Watford	15	7	6	2	+8	27
5	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+4	27
6	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	25
7	Swansea	14	7	4	3	+7	25
8	Stoke	15	7	4	4	+4	25
9	Blackburn	15	7	3	5	+12	24
10	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+6	24
11	Luton	15	6	4	5	-4	22
12	Cardiff	15	5	5	5	+7	20
13	Millwall	15	4	8	3	+1	20
14	Preston	15	6	1	8	-3	19
15	Barnsley	16	5	4	7	-4	19
16	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	QPR	15	4	5	6	-5	17
18	Birmingham	15	3	7	5	-3	16
19	Sheffield Weds	15	3	6	6	-5	15
20	Coventry	15	3	5	7	-10	14
21	Rotherham	15	3	4	8	-6	13
22	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-10	13
23	Wycombe	15	2	4	9	-14	10
24	Derby	15	1	5	9	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Reading	8	6	0	2	+5	18
3	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Blackburn	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+5	14
7	Norwich	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	QPR	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Luton	8	3	3	2	+0	12
10	Cardiff	8	3	2	3	+6	11
11	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+4	11
12	Bristol City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
13	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+0	11
14	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+0	11
15	Coventry	7	3	2	2	-3	11
16	Huddersfield	7	3	1	3	+0	10
17	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Millwall	7	1	5	1	-1	8
20	Sheffield Weds	8	1	5	2	-1	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Wycombe	8	1	3	4	-4	6
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-8	3
24	Derby	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	5	1	2	+5	16
2	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Bournemouth	8	3	4	1	+7	13
7	Reading	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Millwall	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	+6	10
11	Luton	7	3	1	3	-4	10
12	Cardiff	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Birmingham	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Watford	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Middlesbrough	7	1	4	2	-1	7
18	Sheffield Weds	7	2	1	4	-4	7
19	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Derby	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	QPR	7	1	2	4	-6	5
22	Nott'm Forest	8	1	1	6	-9	4
23	Wycombe	7	1	1	5	-10	4
24	Coventry	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.