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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Bielefeld

T T T T T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bielefeld Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 11%

11%

Points per game

0,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

56%

78%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,1

2,4

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bielefeld 17. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+18	22
2	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+12	20
3	Leverkusen	9	5	4	0	+7	19
4	Dortmund	9	6	0	3	+12	18
5	Wolfsburg	9	4	5	0	+6	17
6	Union Berlin	10	4	4	2	+8	16
7	M'gladbach	9	4	3	2	+3	15
8	Augsburg	9	3	3	3	-1	12
9	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	6	1	-2	12
10	Stuttgart	9	2	5	2	+2	11
11	Hertha	10	3	2	5	-1	11
12	Werder Bremen	9	2	5	2	-2	11
13	Hoffenheim	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Freiburg	9	1	4	4	-10	7
15	FC Koln	9	1	3	5	-5	6
16	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	Bielefeld	9	1	1	7	-13	4
18	Schalke 04	9	0	3	6	-22	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Wolfsburg	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+14	10
4	Dortmund	5	3	0	2	+8	9
5	M'gladbach	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+7	8
7	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	3	0	+1	6
10	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Hertha	5	1	1	3	-5	4
13	Stuttgart	5	0	3	2	-3	3
14	Bielefeld	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Freiburg	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Schalke 04	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+4	12
2	Leverkusen	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Stuttgart	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Hertha	5	2	1	2	+4	7
7	Wolfsburg	4	1	3	0	+2	6
8	Werder Bremen	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	-1	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	3	1	-3	6
11	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	FC Koln	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Hoffenheim	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-6	5
16	Mainz	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Bielefeld	5	0	1	4	-8	1
18	Schalke 04	5	0	1	4	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.