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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Tondela

S T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Porto

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 50%

22%

78%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

34%

56%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 14. · Porto 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	25	4	3	+52	79
2	Benfica	32	22	5	5	+39	71
3	Sp Lisbon	31	18	5	8	+19	59
4	Sp Braga	32	17	5	10	+18	56
5	Rio Ave	33	16	8	9	+12	56
6	Famalicao	31	14	9	8	+4	51
7	Guimaraes	32	13	11	8	+19	50
8	Moreirense	32	9	14	9	+3	41
9	Boavista	33	11	8	14	-7	41
10	Gil Vicente	32	10	10	12	-4	40
11	Santa Clara	32	10	10	12	-7	40
12	Maritimo	33	9	12	12	-7	39
13	Pacos Ferreira	32	11	4	17	-13	37
14	Tondela	32	7	10	15	-16	31
15	Belenenses	31	8	7	16	-26	31
16	Setubal	31	6	12	13	-17	30
17	Vitoria Setubal	31	6	12	13	-17	30
18	Portimonense	33	5	14	14	-17	29
19	Aves	33	6	2	25	-35	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+34	43
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+23	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+13	33
4	Sp Lisbon	15	11	0	4	+11	33
5	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+5	28
7	Rio Ave	17	7	5	5	+5	26
8	Gil Vicente	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Moreirense	16	6	6	4	+4	24
10	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
11	Boavista	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Portimonense	16	3	8	5	-3	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	2	9	-5	17
15	Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
17	Aves	17	5	1	11	-9	16
18	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
19	Tondela	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Rio Ave	16	9	3	4	+7	30
4	Sp Lisbon	16	7	5	4	+8	26
5	Sp Braga	16	7	2	7	+5	23
6	Famalicao	15	6	5	4	-1	23
7	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+5	22
8	Santa Clara	16	5	6	5	-1	21
9	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	2	8	-8	20
11	Boavista	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
13	Maritimo	17	4	5	8	-10	17
14	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
16	Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	17	2	6	9	-14	12
19	Aves	16	1	1	14	-26	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.