Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ponferradina
Las Palmas
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mallorca
|
16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | +17 | 35 |
| 2 |
Espanol
|
16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | +15 | 33 |
| 3 |
Leganes
|
16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |
Almeria
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |
Sp Gijon
|
16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 |
Vallecano
|
17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 |
Ponferradina
|
16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |
Malaga
|
16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 |
Mirandes
|
16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +4 | 23 |
| 10 |
Fuenlabrada
|
16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 | Logrones | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 |
Lugo
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +0 | 22 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 21 |
| 14 |
Girona
|
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 21 |
| 15 |
Oviedo
|
16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +1 | 19 |
| 16 |
Cartagena
|
16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 |
Tenerife
|
16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -5 | 16 |
| 18 |
Alcorcon
|
15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 15 |
| 19 |
Castellon
|
16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -8 | 15 |
| 20 |
Sabadell
|
15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -7 | 13 |
| 21 |
Albacete
|
16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 22 |
Zaragoza
|
15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 8 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Leganes
Fuenlabrada
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Zaragoza
Ponferradina
Malaga
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.