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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Sp Lisbon

U S S T U

1–2

Full-time

Famalicao

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 57%

33%

80%

Points per game

1,3

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

67%

40%

Both score Ø 80%

100%

60%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 60%

40%

80%

Points per game

1,6

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 80%

100%

60%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

20 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

6 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 8. · Famalicao 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+15	18
2	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+12	15
3	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Boavista	6	2	4	0	+2	10
6	Guimaraes	6	2	3	1	+3	9
7	Tondela	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Sp Lisbon	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Setubal	6	1	4	1	-3	7
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	4	1	-3	7
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-4	7
14	Portimonense	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Maritimo	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Sp Braga	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Aves	6	1	0	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Gil Vicente	5	1	4	0	+1	7
3	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+4	5
9	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Tondela	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Portimonense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2
14	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Aves	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.