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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

AZ Alkmaar

U T S S T

1–1

Full-time

Excelsior

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

44%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

72%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

72%

61%

Average goals

3,6

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,85 xG 1,12

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 8. · Excelsior 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	19	17	1	1	+36	+19.1	52
2	Feyenoord	19	11	3	5	+20	+20.4	36
3	Nijmegen	18	9	5	4	+15	+6.0	32
4	Ajax	18	8	7	3	+9	+4.0	31
5	Groningen	18	9	4	5	+7	+10.6	31
6	Twente	19	7	8	4	+7	+20.1	29
7	Sparta Rotterdam	19	9	2	8	-10	-2.9	29
8	AZ Alkmaar	18	8	4	6	+2	+12.5	28
9	Heerenveen	18	6	5	7	+1	+11.9	23
10	Zwolle	19	6	5	8	-15	-15.0	23
11	Utrecht	17	6	4	7	+4	-2.4	22
12	For Sittard	19	6	4	9	-5	-10.8	22
13	Go Ahead Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	-12.1	21
14	Excelsior	18	6	2	10	-15	-12.3	20
15	Volendam	19	4	5	10	-12	-16.9	17
16	Telstar	19	3	7	9	-8	-8.6	16
17	NAC Breda	19	3	5	11	-11	-7.5	14
18	Heracles	19	4	2	13	-22	-16.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+17	+11.3	22
2	Feyenoord	10	6	1	3	+9	+11.8	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+7.2	17
5	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
6	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
7	Zwolle	9	5	1	3	-2	-1.1	16
8	Groningen	9	4	3	2	+7	+7.7	15
9	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
10	Volendam	10	4	3	3	+3	-1.8	15
11	Twente	9	4	3	2	+2	+11.6	15
12	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
13	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	2	4	-7	-1.8	14
14	Heerenveen	10	3	4	3	-1	+8.1	13
15	Excelsior	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.5	13
16	NAC Breda	10	3	2	5	-2	+2.5	11
17	Heracles	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.4	10
18	Telstar	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
3	Groningen	9	5	1	3	+0	+2.9	16
4	Nijmegen	10	4	3	3	+4	-0.4	15
5	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	0	4	-3	-1.1	15
6	Twente	10	3	5	2	+5	+8.6	14
7	Ajax	9	3	5	1	+3	-3.3	14
8	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	1	5	-2	+5.4	13
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.6	9
11	Go Ahead Eagles	10	1	4	5	-6	-12.7	7
12	Zwolle	10	1	4	5	-13	-13.9	7
13	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-13	-6.8	7
14	Utrecht	9	1	3	5	-5	-5.2	6
15	For Sittard	9	1	2	6	-7	-9.9	5
16	Heracles	10	1	1	8	-17	-12.5	4
17	NAC Breda	9	0	3	6	-9	-10.0	3
18	Volendam	9	0	2	7	-15	-15.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.