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Champions League
Referee: N Walsh
Villarreal
T T S S T
1–2
Full-time
Ajax
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
5,0
Scored
1,5
2,7
Conceded
1,8
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
3,8
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
2,2
3,0
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,36 xG 0,91
38% Possession 62%
19 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.