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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Liverpool

T S U U S

2–0

Full-time

Brighton

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

47%

40%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

67%

60%

Both score Ø 67%

60%

73%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,89 xG 1,90

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 10. · Brighton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+19	+16.7	33
2	Man City	15	10	1	4	+19	+13.9	31
3	Aston Villa	15	9	3	3	+7	-4.4	30
4	Crystal Palace	15	7	5	3	+8	+7.2	26
5	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+10	+5.4	25
6	Man United	15	7	4	4	+4	+7.4	25
7	Everton	15	7	3	5	+1	-1.7	24
8	Brighton	15	6	5	4	+4	+4.6	23
9	Sunderland	15	6	5	4	+1	-8.1	23
10	Liverpool	15	7	2	6	+0	+6.7	23
11	Tottenham	15	6	4	5	+7	-5.0	22
12	Newcastle	15	6	4	5	+2	+3.9	22
13	Bournemouth	15	5	5	5	-3	+1.7	20
14	Brentford	15	6	1	8	-3	+2.6	19
15	Fulham	15	5	2	8	-4	-4.4	17
16	Leeds	15	4	3	8	-10	-1.7	15
17	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-11	-5.1	15
18	West Ham	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.4	13
19	Burnley	15	3	1	11	-14	-18.9	10
20	Wolves	15	0	2	13	-25	-10.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+16	+10.4	21
2	Arsenal	7	6	1	0	+16	+10.4	19
3	Aston Villa	8	6	1	1	+7	-1.4	19
4	Brentford	7	5	1	1	+7	+4.5	16
5	Newcastle	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.9	16
6	Sunderland	7	4	3	0	+7	-0.9	15
7	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+5	+3.1	15
8	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+5	+5.4	15
9	Everton	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
10	Fulham	8	4	1	3	+4	+0.2	13
11	Man United	7	4	1	2	+4	+7.9	13
12	Liverpool	7	4	1	2	+2	+4.3	13
13	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+2	+6.2	12
14	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.1	11
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+2	+5.9	10
16	Tottenham	8	2	2	4	+1	-0.9	8
17	Burnley	7	2	1	4	-2	-7.6	7
18	Nott'm Forest	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.9	7
19	West Ham	7	2	0	5	-9	-4.1	6
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-14	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Crystal Palace	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.3	16
2	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+2.3	14
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	-4.2	14
4	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.3	14
5	Man United	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.5	12
6	Aston Villa	7	3	2	2	+0	-3.0	11
7	Man City	7	3	1	3	+3	+3.5	10
8	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	-3.2	10
9	Liverpool	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.4	10
10	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.4	8
11	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-6	-6.0	8
12	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.1	8
13	West Ham	8	1	4	3	-3	-6.3	7
14	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-2	-1.0	6
15	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
16	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-8	-4.5	4
17	Brentford	8	1	0	7	-10	-1.8	3
18	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-12	-11.3	3
19	Leeds	7	1	0	6	-12	-7.9	3
20	Wolves	7	0	1	6	-11	-6.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.