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Bundesliga

Referee: Sören Storks

St Pauli

T T T S U

2–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 19%

15%

23%

Points per game

0,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

54%

69%

Both score Ø 54%

46%

62%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,80 xG 2,44

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 11

0 Offside 5

6 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Pauli 17. · Heidenheim 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	12	1	0	+40	+26.8	37
2	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+13	+8.2	29
3	Dortmund	13	8	4	1	+12	+7.4	28
4	Leverkusen	13	7	2	4	+9	+7.2	23
5	Hoffenheim	13	7	2	4	+6	+1.6	23
6	Stuttgart	13	7	1	5	-1	-0.5	22
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	-1	+0.9	21
8	Union Berlin	14	5	3	6	-4	-3.2	18
9	FC Koln	13	4	4	5	+1	-0.6	16
10	Freiburg	13	4	4	5	-2	+1.8	16
11	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
12	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-6	-7.0	16
13	Hamburg	13	4	3	6	-6	-3.1	15
14	Augsburg	13	4	1	8	-10	-9.9	13
15	Wolfsburg	13	3	3	7	-6	-4.3	12
16	Heidenheim	13	3	2	8	-16	-8.6	11
17	St Pauli	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
18	Mainz	13	1	3	9	-13	-7.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	+13.0	21
2	RB Leipzig	6	6	0	0	+15	+7.3	18
3	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+1	-1.0	15
4	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+7	+4.5	14
5	Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	+10	+8.5	13
6	Hamburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
7	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.0	12
8	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.3	11
9	Werder Bremen	6	3	2	1	+0	+1.9	11
10	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.7	10
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.2	9
12	Augsburg	7	3	0	4	-6	-6.1	9
13	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.7	8
14	Heidenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	-2.5	8
15	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.1	6
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	St Pauli	6	1	1	4	-8	-1.6	4
18	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+15	+13.8	16
2	Hoffenheim	7	4	2	1	+5	+1.4	14
3	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
4	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.8	11
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.9	10
7	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.3	10
8	FC Koln	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.3	8
9	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.1	7
10	Stuttgart	7	2	1	4	-2	+0.5	7
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.2	6
12	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	-8.9	5
13	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-4.5	5
14	Augsburg	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.8	4
15	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-7.0	4
16	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-7	-4.5	4
17	Heidenheim	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.0	3
18	Hamburg	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.