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Championship

Referee: James Bell

Norwich

T U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,5

4,5

Scored

1,5

3,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

15%

42%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

50%

74%

Both score Ø 77%

75%

79%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 2,12

37% Possession 63%

16 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norwich 23. · Southampton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	20	13	5	2	+29	+20.2	44
2	Middlesbrough	18	10	5	3	+6	+3.7	35
3	Millwall	20	10	5	5	-2	+3.0	35
4	Ipswich	20	9	7	4	+15	+16.0	34
5	Preston	20	8	8	4	+6	-3.8	32
6	Hull	19	9	4	6	+2	-10.2	31
7	QPR	20	9	4	7	-3	+3.4	31
8	Stoke	20	9	3	8	+7	-3.1	30
9	Bristol City	20	8	6	6	+5	+2.7	30
10	Southampton	19	8	5	6	+6	+8.2	29
11	Birmingham	20	8	4	8	+4	+10.8	28
12	Watford	20	7	7	6	+2	+5.5	28
13	Leicester	20	7	7	6	+1	-4.3	28
14	West Brom	21	8	4	9	-3	+1.9	28
15	Wrexham	20	6	9	5	+1	-5.8	27
16	Derby	20	7	6	7	-2	-6.1	27
17	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-6	+6.4	23
18	Swansea	20	6	5	9	-6	-9.6	23
19	Charlton	19	6	5	8	-6	-8.8	23
20	Blackburn	19	6	4	9	-5	+6.3	22
21	Oxford	20	4	7	9	-7	-6.7	19
22	Portsmouth	19	4	5	10	-11	-6.8	17
23	Norwich	20	3	5	12	-11	-8.3	14
24	Sheffield Weds	19	1	6	12	-22	-14.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	7	2	0	+18	+9.0	23
2	Ipswich	11	6	4	1	+10	+13.4	22
3	Watford	11	6	4	1	+7	+6.1	22
4	Birmingham	9	6	2	1	+13	+11.9	20
5	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+4	+0.0	20
6	Hull	10	6	2	2	+3	-2.8	20
7	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+5	+5.6	19
8	Preston	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.8	19
9	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
10	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+6	+6.7	17
11	QPR	10	5	2	3	+2	+6.7	17
12	Stoke	9	5	1	3	+8	+2.5	16
13	Wrexham	10	4	4	2	+2	+2.4	16
14	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
15	Swansea	11	4	3	4	-2	-3.3	15
16	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.2	14
17	Leicester	9	3	4	2	+1	+2.9	13
18	Derby	11	3	4	4	-3	-0.7	13
19	Sheffield United	10	3	2	5	+0	+7.4	11
20	Portsmouth	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.7	11
21	Oxford	9	2	4	3	-3	+0.1	10
22	Blackburn	10	1	3	6	-7	+3.6	6
23	Norwich	9	1	1	7	-6	-0.4	4
24	Sheffield Weds	10	0	2	8	-19	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	11	6	3	2	+11	+11.1	21
2	Blackburn	9	5	1	3	+2	+2.7	16
3	Millwall	10	4	4	2	-2	-1.1	16
4	Middlesbrough	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.7	15
5	Bristol City	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
6	Leicester	11	4	3	4	+0	-7.3	15
7	Derby	9	4	2	3	+1	-5.5	14
8	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	-5.7	14
9	QPR	10	4	2	4	-5	-3.3	14
10	Preston	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.9	13
11	Ipswich	9	3	3	3	+5	+2.6	12
12	Southampton	10	3	3	4	+0	+1.5	12
13	Sheffield United	11	4	0	7	-6	-1.0	12
14	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
15	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-1	-8.2	11
16	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-5	-8.0	10
17	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-4	-6.8	9
18	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.6	9
19	West Brom	11	3	0	8	-8	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-4	-6.3	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	9	1	4	4	-3	-7.2	7
23	Watford	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.6	6
24	Portsmouth	9	1	3	5	-9	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.