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DFB-Pokal

Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Union Berlin

S U U S T

2–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

5,0

Scored

3,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

40% Possession 60%

18 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 6. · Bayern Munich 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Hertha	3	2	1	0	+8	7
5	Stuttgart	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Kaiserslautern	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Magdeburg	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+3	6
11	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Bochum	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	St Pauli	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+5	4
17	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
18	Dortmund	3	1	1	1	+0	4
19	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+8	3
20	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+4	3
21	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
22	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Paderborn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-3	3
32	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Illertissen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
61	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
64	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Illertissen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Dortmund	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
44	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
45	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
46	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
47	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
48	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
50	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Stuttgart	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Kaiserslautern	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Magdeburg	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
12	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+9	3
15	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+5	3
18	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
19	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Darmstadt	2	1	0	1	-1	3
27	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-3	3
29	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Bielefeld	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.