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Premiership

Referee: J Beaton

Hearts

U S U T U

1–1

Full-time

Kilmarnock

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hearts Kilmarnock

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 39%

64%

14%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

64%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hearts 1. · Kilmarnock 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	14	9	4	1	+18	+5.4	31
2	Celtic	13	9	2	2	+14	+3.6	29
3	Motherwell	14	5	7	2	+7	+5.1	22
4	Rangers	13	5	7	1	+6	-0.4	22
5	Hibernian	15	5	6	4	+6	+0.8	21
6	Falkirk	14	5	5	4	-2	+0.5	20
7	Aberdeen	13	5	2	6	-2	-3.4	17
8	Dundee United	13	3	6	4	-2	-1.9	15
9	Dundee	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.7	12
10	Kilmarnock	14	2	5	7	-11	-3.8	11
11	St Mirren	13	2	4	7	-10	-1.2	10
12	Livingston	14	1	5	8	-11	+1.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	7	5	2	0	+12	+2.6	17
2	Celtic	6	5	1	0	+13	+4.1	16
3	Motherwell	7	3	3	1	+5	+3.9	12
4	Falkirk	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.8	10
5	Rangers	7	2	4	1	+1	+1.8	10
6	Dundee	7	3	1	3	-1	-2.2	10
7	Hibernian	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.8	9
8	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	+1	-3.9	8
9	Dundee United	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.3	7
10	St Mirren	7	1	3	3	-4	+0.0	6
11	Kilmarnock	8	1	3	4	-5	+0.1	6
12	Livingston	6	1	1	4	-2	+2.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	7	4	2	1	+6	+2.8	14
2	Celtic	7	4	1	2	+1	-0.5	13
3	Rangers	6	3	3	0	+5	-2.2	12
4	Hibernian	8	3	3	2	+2	-2.0	12
5	Motherwell	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.2	10
6	Falkirk	7	3	1	3	-4	-1.3	10
7	Aberdeen	6	3	0	3	-3	+0.5	9
8	Dundee United	7	1	5	1	+0	-0.6	8
9	Kilmarnock	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.8	5
10	St Mirren	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.2	4
11	Livingston	8	0	4	4	-9	-0.4	4
12	Dundee	7	0	2	5	-12	-4.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.