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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Ath Bilbao

T S T U S

0–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 57%

43%

71%

Points per game

1,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 47%

36%

57%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,84 xG 2,21

38% Possession 62%

9 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	1	2	+25	+14.8	37
2	Real Madrid	14	10	3	1	+16	+18.3	33
3	Villarreal	14	10	2	2	+16	+8.4	32
4	Ath Madrid	15	9	4	2	+14	+9.3	31
5	Betis	14	6	6	2	+8	+6.3	24
6	Espanol	14	7	3	4	+2	+5.2	24
7	Getafe	14	6	2	6	-2	-3.5	20
8	Ath Bilbao	14	6	2	6	-3	+5.6	20
9	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-2	+2.1	17
10	Sociedad	14	4	4	6	-2	+0.7	16
11	Elche	14	3	7	4	-2	-5.2	16
12	Celta	14	3	7	4	-3	-1.8	16
13	Sevilla	14	5	1	8	-4	-10.3	16
14	Alaves	14	4	3	7	-3	+1.1	15
15	Valencia	14	3	5	6	-9	-5.9	14
16	Mallorca	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.8	13
17	Osasuna	14	3	3	8	-6	-3.7	12
18	Girona	14	2	6	6	-13	-11.2	12
19	Levante	14	2	3	9	-10	-5.4	9
20	Oviedo	14	2	3	9	-15	-14.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	+21	+12.5	24
2	Ath Madrid	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
3	Villarreal	7	6	1	0	+14	+6.9	19
4	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+9.9	18
5	Espanol	8	5	1	2	+2	+2.2	16
6	Betis	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.1	13
7	Elche	7	3	4	0	+4	+0.4	13
8	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+2	+7.4	13
9	Valencia	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.6	11
10	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.5	11
11	Getafe	7	3	2	2	+2	-2.8	11
12	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.7	10
13	Sociedad	7	3	1	3	+0	+2.7	10
14	Mallorca	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.4	10
15	Girona	8	2	3	3	-6	-7.0	9
16	Vallecano	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.0	7
17	Sevilla	7	2	1	4	-2	-2.1	7
18	Celta	8	0	5	3	-5	+0.1	5
19	Oviedo	7	1	2	4	-8	-8.6	5
20	Levante	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	4	3	1	+5	+8.4	15
2	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
3	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
4	Betis	7	2	5	0	+3	+2.2	11
5	Celta	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.9	11
6	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.9	10
7	Ath Madrid	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.7	9
8	Sevilla	7	3	0	4	-2	-8.2	9
9	Getafe	7	3	0	4	-4	-0.7	9
10	Levante	8	2	2	4	+0	+1.2	8
11	Espanol	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.1	8
12	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.8	7
13	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.0	6
14	Alaves	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.5	4
15	Oviedo	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
16	Mallorca	7	1	0	6	-6	-7.4	3
17	Elche	7	0	3	4	-6	-5.6	3
18	Girona	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.2	3
19	Valencia	7	0	3	4	-12	-9.4	3
20	Osasuna	8	0	2	6	-7	-4.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.