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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Brest

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Lyon

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,07 xG 1,43

33% Possession 67%

11 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 12. · Lyon 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	4	0	+30	+26.5	40
2	Marseille	16	10	3	3	+18	+3.0	33
3	Monaco	17	9	4	4	+10	+19.6	31
4	Lille	17	7	8	2	+10	+7.5	29
5	Lyon	16	8	4	4	+8	+5.9	28
6	Nice	16	7	6	3	+10	+7.5	27
7	Lens	16	6	6	4	+4	+6.8	24
8	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	+1	+8.8	24
9	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	-2	-9.9	22
10	Strasbourg	16	5	5	6	+0	-6.3	20
11	Reims	16	5	5	6	+0	-5.3	20
12	Brest	16	6	1	9	-5	-9.6	19
13	Rennes	16	5	2	9	-1	+0.7	17
14	Nantes	17	3	7	7	-7	-8.6	16
15	Angers	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.0	16
16	St Etienne	16	5	1	10	-20	-14.1	16
17	Le Havre	16	4	0	12	-22	-13.8	12
18	Montpellier	16	2	3	11	-24	-12.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+18	+13.5	22
2	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
3	Auxerre	9	5	3	1	+7	-0.3	18
4	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
5	Rennes	8	5	1	2	+11	+5.6	16
6	Brest	8	5	1	2	+8	+1.3	16
7	Lyon	8	5	1	2	+5	+4.5	16
8	Strasbourg	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.6	15
9	Lille	8	4	3	1	+4	+1.5	15
10	St Etienne	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.7	15
11	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.5	14
12	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.3	12
13	Lens	8	3	2	3	+0	+5.4	11
14	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
15	Reims	8	2	3	3	-2	-2.3	9
16	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	-7	-1.5	9
17	Angers	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
18	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-14	-7.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	7	0	1	+16	+0.7	21
2	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+12	+13.0	18
3	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+6	+8.5	14
4	Lille	9	3	5	1	+6	+6.0	14
5	Lens	8	3	4	1	+4	+1.4	13
6	Lyon	8	3	3	2	+3	+1.5	12
7	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
8	Toulouse	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.3	10
9	Nice	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.6	9
10	Angers	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.2	9
11	Nantes	9	1	4	4	-6	-8.6	7
12	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-8	-6.0	6
13	Strasbourg	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.0	5
14	Auxerre	8	1	1	6	-9	-9.6	4
15	Brest	8	1	0	7	-13	-10.9	3
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	8	0	1	7	-22	-15.8	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.