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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Nijmegen

T S S U U

0–3

Full-time

Utrecht

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,0

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 7. · Utrecht 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	6	5	1	0	+26	16
2	Willem II	6	4	1	1	+2	13
3	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	Heerenveen	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Feyenoord	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Utrecht	5	2	2	1	+5	8
7	Nijmegen	5	2	2	1	-2	8
8	Twente	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	0	3	-3	6
10	Cambuur	5	2	0	3	-8	6
11	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-9	6
12	Waalwijk	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Groningen	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	For Sittard	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Zwolle	5	0	0	5	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+19	9
2	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Cambuur	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Heerenveen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Willem II	3	2	0	1	-2	6
8	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Nijmegen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Twente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	For Sittard	3	1	1	1	-4	4
12	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Groningen	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Vitesse	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+7	7
2	Willem II	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Feyenoord	3	2	0	1	+6	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Vitesse	3	2	0	1	-3	6
6	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-4	4
8	Twente	3	1	0	2	+0	3
9	Groningen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Waalwijk	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	For Sittard	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Zwolle	3	0	0	3	-4	0
16	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	0	2	-5	0
17	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	0	2	-6	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.