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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Lyon

T U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Troyes

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%

15 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 11. · Troyes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Marseille	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Lens	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Nice	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Angers	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Nantes	7	3	1	3	+3	10
7	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+2	9
8	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Clermont	7	2	3	2	-6	9
10	Rennes	7	2	2	3	+1	8
11	Lyon	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Monaco	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Lille	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Reims	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Bordeaux	7	1	3	3	-6	6
17	Troyes	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Brest	7	0	4	3	-6	4
19	St Etienne	7	0	3	4	-7	3
20	Metz	6	0	3	3	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+5	7
3	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Montpellier	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Angers	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Lorient	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Nantes	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Lille	3	2	0	1	-2	6
10	Nice	3	1	2	0	+4	5
11	Lyon	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Clermont	3	1	2	0	+2	5
13	Lens	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Brest	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Metz	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Reims	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Bordeaux	3	0	1	2	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Lens	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Nice	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Angers	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Reims	4	1	2	1	+1	5
7	Bordeaux	4	1	2	1	-3	5
8	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Monaco	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Troyes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Clermont	4	1	1	2	-8	4
12	Lorient	4	0	3	1	-2	3
13	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Lille	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Brest	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Metz	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	St Etienne	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.