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Eredivisie
Referee: Ed Peter Janssen
Utrecht
S T S U S
3–1
Full-time
Nijmegen
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Nijmegen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,2
Scored
2,2
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,2
This season — Eredivisie · 25/29 matches
Win Ø 41%
40%
41%
Points per game
1,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
56%
38%
Both score Ø 51%
64%
38%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%
15 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Utrecht 13. · Nijmegen 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 30 23 5 2 +54 74
2 PSV Eindhoven 30 22 6 2 +45 72
3 Feyenoord 29 16 4 9 +19 52
4 AZ Alkmaar 30 14 5 11 +7 47
5 Vitesse 30 12 8 10 +21 44
6 Zwolle 28 13 5 10 +8 44
7 Heracles 27 13 5 9 +0 44
8 Nijmegen 29 12 7 10 +0 43
9 Heerenveen 30 11 7 12 -12 40
10 Den Haag 30 9 11 10 -2 38
11 Twente 29 11 5 13 -12 38
12 Groningen 28 10 7 11 -11 37
13 Utrecht 25 10 6 9 +5 36
14 Roda 30 7 10 13 -17 31
15 Willem II 30 5 10 15 -16 25
16 Excelsior 30 6 7 17 -26 25
17 De Graafschap 29 4 6 19 -24 18
18 Cambuur 30 3 8 19 -39 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Nov -15 Nijmegen – Utrecht 1–0

Match report

Utrecht Nijmegen
1–0 R. Boymans
4′
44′
T. Kane 1–1
G. Breinburg
Half-time 1–1
N. Barazite 🔁
↦ R. Boymans
67′
2–1 N. Barazite
A. Ludwig
70′
3–1 S. Haller
N. Barazite
73′
75′
🔁 M. Roman
↦ Janio Bikel
79′
🟨 Lucas Woudenberg
Christian Kum 🟨
83′
87′
🟥 Wojciech Golla
Y. Ayoub 🔁
↦ B. Ramselaar
88′
P. Joosten 🔁
↦ Y. Ayoub
94′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Utrecht

16 F. Bednarek G
5 C. Kum D
3 R. Leeuwin D
2 M. van der Maarel D
14 T. Letschert D
8 W. Janssen D
7 R. Strieder M
23 B. Ramselaar M
9 R. Boymans
11 A. Ludwig M
22 S. Haller F
Bench (7)
10 N. Barazite
6 Y. Ayoub
37 P. Joosten
47 G. Troupée
46 T. Nijhuis
19 R. Ligeon
18 R. Rubin

Nijmegen

30 B. Jones G
33 R. van Eijden D
3 D. Dumić D
4 W. Golla D
16 T. Kane M
15 L. Woudenberg D
8 G. Breinburg M
25 N. Foor M
9 J. Sleegers M
19 Janio Bikel M
10 A. Limbombe F
Bench (7)
17 M. Roman
22 J. Smits
7 S. Lundholm
37 J. Leiwakabessy
31 J. Grot
6 M. Dyrestam
2 M. Appiah

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Ed Peter Janssen · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.